< Episode 236 >
Around the time the United States and the United Kingdom were having an uncomfortable meeting, things were gradually going awry in an unexpected place: Africa. Africa, more than any other continent, suffered immensely from 19th-century colonial powers, the effects of which are still felt today.
Simply put, as European powers plundered Africa’s wealth, the continent’s condition deteriorated. The poverty seen in Africa today is largely a result of the exploitation that occurred during the 19th and 20th centuries. While other factors have contributed since then, it’s no exaggeration to say that Europe bears the primary responsibility.
However, the immediate concern isn’t why Africa is poor, but that its poverty has left most countries, excluding major cities, with virtually no sanitation infrastructure. That’s right, sanitation facilities. Not quarantine or healthcare facilities, but basic sanitation.
The entire African continent was struggling, but if one country stood out for its extreme poverty, it was undoubtedly the Congo. The two Congo civil wars completely devastated the nation, which was already on the brink of collapse.
In such a country, people were more concerned with their immediate survival than with Super SARS. Their worries were akin to those of people living in a 10th-century feudal society: Would they be robbed or shot? Would someone steal the fruits of their labor? These were concerns not just for individuals, but for entire villages. Congo was a land of chaos.
Regardless of these everyday concerns, Super SARS proved to be even more deadly than expected. While some understanding of hygiene existed, it was rudimentary compared to developed countries. Closing the border was not a viable option; doing so would have meant complete collapse.
Overwhelmed and lacking resources, the eastern region saw more than half its population become carriers of Super SARS. The Congolese government, with its virtually non-existent administrative capacity, was largely unaware of this fact, and the international community was similarly uninformed.
This situation was almost inevitable. The government army had been decimated in the war approximately seven years prior. While not a short period, seven years isn’t enough to rebuild a shattered nation. In reality, it had only been about two years since the end of the war. The military was a complete rabble, barely deserving of the name.
Furthermore, a widespread attitude of “So what if you get infected? A cure will come out eventually,” meant that no reliable statistics were being collected. The international community simply didn’t pay much attention to the spread of Super SARS in underdeveloped African nations.
The result? Congo became the country with the highest Super SARS mortality rate. Developed countries had far more ‘infected people,’ but those individuals had access to clean water, food, and proper medical care. In Africa, only a tiny minority had such access.
Meanwhile, things were also deteriorating in India. Al-Qaeda, driven out of the Middle East, was spreading globally, not entirely of its own volition. But how many people would willingly relocate to a place with no connections? Ultimately, they either went to Europe to carry out terrorist attacks or moved to India.
Why India? Because it’s easy to hide in plain sight [a common idiom]. While small and large-scale anti-terrorism operations were conducted, they were insignificant compared to those in the Middle East. A country where the government struggles to exert its authority is prone to corruption and becomes a haven for criminals to hide and rebuild.
Some also went to Africa, but fewer than to India. Al-Qaeda already had a foothold in India, and as the saying goes, the best place to hide a tree is in a forest.
Despite India being predominantly Hindu, Islam had a significant presence. Muslims constituted at least 10% of the population, a number that had recently increased due to the influx of refugees. Now, they likely accounted for at least 12%.
Is 10% a negligible amount? It might seem so when considering a discount at the supermarket, but many people would quit their jobs if their salary was cut by 10% due to company difficulties. 10% is a significant figure. With India’s population around 1.1 billion, 10% represents 110 million people.
Moreover, some 12% of Hindus may have converted to Islam, drawn to the religion. Conversely, the country had to absorb tens of millions of refugees, including Al-Qaeda members hidden among them.
The Indian government was eager to expel them, but couldn’t do so while receiving aid from the United States, specifically a ‘refugee fund.’ While this money wasn’t actually used for refugees, the pretense of refugee support made it difficult to implement strict measures.
“Damn it! (Блять!)”
The story shifts to Russia. Russia, despite its preparations, suffered a significant blow. The most frustrating part was that they *were* preparing. Being caught off guard was bad enough, but being struck before they were ready felt like a betrayal.
At least, that’s how everyone in the Russian government felt, especially Vladimir Putin.
“This is unbelievable! How could this happen?!”
Putin’s rage manifested outwardly, sending objects flying off his desk and shattering against the walls. He paid no attention to the destruction. In his fury, the Kremlin’s history and its furnishings were meaningless. They were just objects. If only destroying objects could alleviate his anger.
He wasn’t one to display his emotions outwardly. Recent setbacks had made him impatient, but he was still an exceptional individual. Even in his anger, he was formulating his next plan. It was a unique mindset that ordinary people couldn’t, and wouldn’t want to, emulate. But without it, Russia would be incredibly unstable.
‘I thought I could at least stabilize things, but it’s come to this!’
He had been weighing the pros and cons of disarmament versus maintenance, and the budget that could sustain Russia was dwindling.
‘Should I reorganize?’
By reorganization, he meant administrative, not military. Many officials were already too arrogant for his liking, and he was, in effect, the Tsar of Russia. By making examples of a few and consolidating his power, he could recover embezzled funds and add them to the budget, killing two birds with one stone.
However, it depended on his political maneuvering. Putin’s power was such that he could fabricate events and deploy the military and police in secret. If he chose to, he could burn down a remote city and cover it up.
Of course, dealing with the aftermath would require a huge budget, but that was just an example. Putin was confident in his ability to handle such extreme situations.
Conversely, because the government still held some power, at least on the surface, progress was being made in his initiatives. In many countries, things don’t even happen on the surface. Even in the United States, Bush seized power under the guise of fighting corruption and dealing with emergencies.
In any case, he had made his decision. But wasn’t Putin already aware of this and proceeding with reforms? It was perhaps too strong to call it a reform. He was going to use political rhetoric to justify it, but the core idea was to ‘Shake down future political enemies and disliked officials and contribute to the national treasury.’
However, he worried about the potential consequences. Could he afford to cut off essential personnel when administrative power was already weak? He was concerned about becoming like Stalin, who purged the military and was subsequently defeated by the Nazis. But there was no guarantee that things would improve if he did nothing. The corruption within Russia’s government was a well-known fact, both domestically and internationally.
‘Then the only way is to scare them into action.’
Even if people ignore polite requests, they become compliant when threatened. In this emergency, shouldn’t he threaten even those who refuse to listen?
“Thinking like this, there’s nothing difficult.”
It was a dictator’s mindset, but that was Vladimir Putin. He had initially wanted to govern in a more subtle and sophisticated manner, but the times demanded otherwise.
‘If it were ten years later, I might have been able to wage an oil war with Saudi Arabia, but then again, is now better?’
Both Saudi Arabia and Russia relied heavily on natural resources. He didn’t know how long the oil war would last, but he hoped it wouldn’t continue until Russia’s reserves were depleted.
“Disarmament. Disarmament.”
Putin unknowingly chuckled and repeated the word in his mind. Russia’s alpha and omega. Light and salt. Who would have thought that the idea of disarmament would even be considered by the Russian army?
‘The problem is whether I do it or not.’
He maintained the Russian army, knowing it was corrupt, bloated, and ineffective. It would be ideal if the military was of high quality, but quantity couldn’t be ignored in conventional warfare.
Some might argue for asymmetric warfare using nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, but if even one nuclear missile left the Earth’s atmosphere, it would be the destruction of humanity, not war.
And Russia already possessed nuclear weapons, unofficially holding the largest stockpile in the world.
Furthermore, some argue that ‘The economy will collapse because of the military!’ That might be true, but it’s a simplistic view.
If a country becomes overly militaristic and dedicates most of its revenue to the military, it becomes a problem. But to protect Russia’s current hegemony, maintain its prestige, and safeguard future interests, the current scale was essential. And it wasn’t that bad yet.
Even if that day comes, it won’t be this year.
‘Damn it. If I disarm, I’ll be looked down upon by the world, and Georgia will run wild. Even though the Baltic states have been brought into the sphere of influence to some extent, it’s like stirring up a hornet’s nest.’
If European countries had disarmed, it would be different, but they were producing new tanks. What kind of disarmament is that?
In the end, Putin chose to maintain the status quo. However, he pushed the question of how much money that maintenance would cost to the back of his mind, trying to ignore it.