The Great America of George W. Bush – Episode 267
When it comes to space exploration, six countries stand out: the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, India, and Japan. These nations all possess dedicated space development agencies.
Currently, the United States spends the most, followed by Japan, the world’s second-largest economy.
While China is destined to surpass Japan in the long run due to its vast capital reserves, Japan has managed to maintain its second-place position, partly due to the temporary setback China experienced during the Bush era and the [COVID-19] virus outbreak.
As the second-largest economy, Japan has the financial resources to invest in spacecraft. There was a time when launching a spacecraft was considered a monumental event, almost like preparing for ‘war,’ reflecting the immense power it signified. However, in the 21st century, launching a spacecraft has become relatively commonplace. In fact, any country with sufficient funds and suitable land can achieve it.
All they need to do is purchase components from developed nations, train their personnel, and launch the spacecraft. Of course, whether the rocket successfully reaches orbit or ends up being a costly failure is another matter entirely.
The key point is that Japan is one of the few countries with both substantial financial resources and advanced technological capabilities.
From flying [kamikaze] missions with propeller planes to successfully launching rockets carrying exploration robots into space, Japan has made remarkable progress in both material resources and technology.
Spurred by the U.S. government’s large-scale investments, the Japanese government, albeit passively, increased the budget for JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency), viewing it as a potential technological breakthrough.
While the increase wasn’t massive, as there were numerous domestic areas requiring investment, it was sufficient to further improve the M-V rocket.
Although the M-V was already considered world-class in terms of performance, its launch cost of approximately 5.7 billion yen raised concerns within the government about the feasibility of spending such a sum for each launch. Consequently, the M-VI was under development to reduce costs while maintaining comparable performance.
In the future, this cost-effective rocket, developed with these aims, would undergo compromises and eventually be named Epsilon, separate from the M series. However, that was still in the future. Development was simply proceeding faster than in the original timeline, and the detailed design had been slightly altered, representing a further step forward.
With the justification for claiming Dokdo [a group of islets in the Sea of Japan, disputed between South Korea and Japan] removed due to active U.S. intervention, only the Senkaku Islands [disputed between Japan, China, and Taiwan] and the Kuril Islands [disputed between Russia and Japan] remained as potential conflict zones. However, both were effectively under undisputed control.
The Senkaku Islands were under Japan’s effective control, while the Kuril Islands were under Russia’s. In the case of the Senkaku Islands, China, a major claimant, was notably passive.
They were conserving their strength and addressing ‘most’ disputes with conciliatory measures rather than aggressive tactics, aiming to regain prominence in the future.
If their previous demeanor was like a tiger preying on the defenseless, they now resembled a pangolin, cowering in fear at the sight of a predator.
“What pathetic bastards.”
With superhuman patience, Putin suppressed the frustration that arose from every word and paragraph and calmly pushed the report into the drawer.
Leading space development has traditionally been the domain of the Russian Federal Space Agency, or rather, the disorganized research institutions inherited from the Soviet era. Since the beginning of the 21st century, there has been some fluctuation, but ultimately, it’s still a matter of comparing achievements among relatively similar contenders.
If simply throwing money at it could guarantee immediate results, would that even qualify as space development? That would be more akin to mass production in a factory.
Of course, I’m not underestimating NASA’s technological capabilities. Despite some weakening since the end of the Cold War, NASA remains a formidable institution. However, the situation changes if they set ambitious goals like establishing a lunar base and actively pursue them.
The Russian government has learned that NASA isn’t just engaging in external publicity but is genuinely planning to build a lunar base in the near future and plant the Stars and Stripes there.
So what? If there’s going to be a significant difference in national power in space development, it will likely be after Putin is no longer in power. And Putin has no intention of relinquishing power before his death, nor does he plan to die anytime soon.
In other words, even if a lunar base is constructed, it will be at least the end of the 21st century before it starts to have a real impact.
“And Japan.”
They were constantly provoking disputes over the Kuril Islands issue. Initially, it was limited to protests by far-right groups or citizens, but Koizumi [Prime Minister of Japan, 2001-2006] seemed to be realizing that his power was waning, and he was desperately clinging to it.
Even if power slips through his fingers like sand, he can try to retain some of it by tightening his grip. The problem is how to tighten that grip, and it seemed Koizumi had decided to provoke Russia, which had been weakened recently, as a means to do so.
He didn’t really expect to reclaim the islands, but making such claims against Russia was enough. Every time Koizumi publicly criticized Russia, his popularity increased in proportion to Russia’s anger.
“I didn’t want to reduce the military because I didn’t want to see these monkey bastards running wild.”
They had only slightly reduced the size of the army, but many people perceived that the giant battleship called Russia was truly faltering.
But what could he do? If he didn’t reduce the military, he would lose his balance and collapse under the weight of the massive military apparatus. Wouldn’t he have to remove some of the burden to survive?
Still, the military reduction had its benefits. Thanks to the windfall from high oil prices, he was able to address budget shortfalls and create jobs, even if only temporarily.
In addition, some of the retired soldiers were re-employed as military personnel, and those who weren’t were placed in temporary jobs.
It was obvious where the soldiers who had been forced to retire and had no means of support would end up. The creation of temporary jobs was facilitated by the unique characteristics of Russia, where people were highly responsive to Putin’s directives. To conduct business in Russia, one had to adhere to Putin’s will.
While they might resist unreasonable demands, they could certainly create jobs for retired soldiers.
In any case, thanks to Koizumi’s ‘strong claims,’ Putin was quite concerned about the Kuril Islands, including patrolling the islands with bombers or fighters and converting the islands into fortified military installations. It was truly absurd that they were demanding them back after waging war.
It would be worth considering the pros and cons if the indigenous Ainu people revolted, seceded from Japan, and then demanded the return of their rightful territory, the Kuril Islands. As it stood, the claim wasn’t even worth contemplating.
Of course, Putin hadn’t considered returning them for political and diplomatic reasons. However, the Russian citizens currently residing in the Kuril Islands were opposed to it, and Putin reaffirmed his stance after confirming their resolve.
However, there were also ‘political’ considerations, and the archipelago was complex, involving economic aid issues and numerous other factors.
And the hypocritical United States. Every time I see that damned land, I feel that if you don’t want conflict, you just need to have a strong power that no one can match, or you can just destroy all the elements of conflict themselves.
Isn’t the United States itself a country created by seizing other people’s land? Every time they open their mouths, I can’t help but laugh.
“What? Condemning the territorial dispute between China and Taiwan? Condemning Russia for invading Georgia? That’s ridiculous. Of course, they’ll conveniently exclude themselves. Is that blessed land rightfully theirs?”
To build their country, they relentlessly massacred the original inhabitants, the Native Americans. Russia is similar. To expand eastward, they used both force and diplomacy to assimilate or eliminate the Siberian natives. It’s just that Russia and the United States are the victors, and the Siberian and Native Americans are powerless, so their stories are often overlooked.
“What do you think, Dmitri?”
Dmitri Medvedev had been observing Putin’s every move, standing by his side. Dmitri was Putin’s most trusted confidant, at least within the Russian political establishment. Putin trusted him more than his own daughters.
He was a man who wouldn’t make any drastic changes even if he became president after Putin and would return the power he had received from Putin in the subsequent term.
He possessed moderate ability and moderate ambition, and he would never overstep his boundaries. Furthermore, he and Putin were compatible in many ways, so Putin had no reason not to value him.
“I don’t have a habit of talking to myself. Tell me your opinion quickly.”
Recently, as Putin became increasingly frustrated, he also felt impatient with Medvedev. Medvedev could be Putin’s partner, but he could never surpass him. Putin was incapable of tolerating someone superior to himself.
In fact, this was true for most people, not just Putin, but especially in Putin’s case, to maintain complete control over Russia, he had to either bring all talented individuals under his control or eliminate them.
Therefore, Medvedev would normally respond stoically, ‘I will only follow the President’s will,’ but it seemed Putin wasn’t seeking that answer today.
Perhaps he was reacting this way because he was dissatisfied with the overall situation, with the United States and its allies, like Japan, challenging his pride. It was evident when he even brought up space development, a topic he usually paid little attention to.
“While looking far ahead is important, how about addressing immediate concerns first?”
In essence, it was advice not to focus too much on foreign affairs and to prioritize the present over the future. It was more of a well-wishing remark than actual advice, but it was enough to calm Putin down.
“Immediate concerns, huh.”
However, it seemed Putin interpreted it slightly differently.
“You’re right. That’s right. We should value what’s close by rather than what’s far away. We don’t have to solve the problem all at once, but we can solve it step by step.”
That was the day Putin ordered Gazprom [Russian state-owned energy company] to maximize oil production and release accumulated oil reserves into the market.