The Great America of George W. Bush – Episode 318
< Episode 318 >
Before delving into the stories of the warlords, it’s important to understand their commonalities:
Despite the fact that these figures outwardly supported China’s political landscape and military, the key individuals – young leaders in their 20s and 30s with backgrounds largely unrelated to politics or military strategy – lacked proper *guanxi* [personal connections and reciprocal relationships, crucial for navigating Chinese society].
Consequently, the now-divided warlords were not well-connected to each other. This led to differences in opinion and, at times, a refusal to cooperate.
It wasn’t as if there were no instances where they reluctantly joined forces due to unavoidable circumstances. For example, the alliances between Lanzhou and Chengdu, and Nanjing and Guangzhou.
However, these two cases were not entirely the same. Lanzhou and Chengdu grew rapidly closer due to the constant threat of independence movements from India, forming a strong alliance based on shared survival. In the case of Nanjing and Guangzhou, it was a matter of increasing their size to avoid being swallowed up by surrounding enemies.
Furthermore, their aims included achieving independence under the warlords, overthrowing the U.S.-backed puppet communist party, and dividing China. They dreamed of determining the true ruler of China when the decisive moment arrived. However, when that time came, the leadership, facing the threat of war and having exponentially more to lose than they do now, would likely negotiate a settlement.
In any case, whether instigated by someone else or conceived independently, the common sentiment among the warlord leadership was this:
“We have risen to this point through our own strength! How can we tolerate being interfered with! We must overcome the internal interference of the corrupt communist party and make China great again!”
Unsurprisingly, they blamed the current division on the communist party. In simple terms, their argument was that the ruling communist party was incompetent, leading to the current situation, and therefore, the fate of the Chinese people could no longer be entrusted to them.
These individuals who rose to power so suddenly lacked proper *guanxi* and confiscated property under the guise of taxes.
They abolished a significant portion of existing laws, including the constitution, that did not suit their tastes, and secured legitimacy for their rule.
In particular, they unilaterally abolished laws that seemed unfavorable to the common people. As they increasingly disrupted the legal system and the economy, they began to operate under the guise of justice, changing the perception of citizens who had initially seen them as merely pathetic military regimes.
In reality, it wasn’t much different from a foolish dictatorship, but since changes were happening rapidly, they garnered support whether people liked it or not. In particular, citizens enjoyed seeing the wealthy suffer, specifically the *nouveau riche* [newly rich] who were moderately corrupt.
These were the people who had failed to leave China before the situation unfolded. It was too late to liquidate their assets, and they were afraid of becoming penniless in a foreign country with no connections, as their wealth was tied up in China.
Of course, among these people, there were those who tried to start anew overseas, but those who succeeded were only a very small number of people who would have succeeded anywhere. Most could not give up what they already had.
Among the abolished laws was the planned birth policy, which was part of the population control plan. Among the newly established laws was one that allowed undocumented individuals to obtain a roughly made-up household registration (*hukou*) [official record of residence] without any conditions for a small fee.
It was a desperate measure to replenish dwindling military funds, but for the undocumented, it must have felt like they were no longer children of darkness but proud citizens of China, with all the restrictions they had been subjected to disappearing.
This story became more persuasive the further down into the countryside one went. To be precise, it deeply impressed those who were not considered people in China – the undocumented, the victims of the planned birth policy.
Their numbers were not large, but they became ardent supporters of the warlords. In fact, nothing much changed in their lives, but they expressed their support not only in words but also in reality by voluntarily enlisting in the warlords’ army.
In the event of a military coup, the treatment of the regime usually falls into one of two categories: first, the military regime tries to directly lead the country, and second, it reigns but leaves the troublesome politics to the existing government under appropriate checks.
Usually, the former is more common, and this time was no different. The commonality of the former is that it never returns to normal. If they could pay attention to the economy and the detailed livelihoods of the people, they would have been politicians or philosophers, not soldiers.
Anyway, even if it was limited to China, the world of soldiers had opened, so there was no way the country could function properly. Moreover, there was no way there could be fairness in the constitution they had changed to suit their tastes.
The problem was that it worked better than expected.
The warlords’ propaganda about internal enemies permeated like a drug, fueled by past resentment and anger.
“In the past, our people commanded the world and created a world called China, ruling for 4,000 years! But it was not always great. Today, China is a byproduct, a result, and a culmination of the history of resisting and fighting against invasion! The day China ceases to be great is only when the conservatives who rule the land of China fall behind the times and become corrupt! China was great, and will continue to be great! By our hands!”
These provocative speeches were constantly hammered into people’s ears, gradually turning even those who had been favorable to the existing communist regime away. In any case, it was true that the communist party had made a series of mistakes, and it was also true that the chairman had changed several times.
Moreover, Li Keqiang himself was not a person who strongly suppressed the people like his predecessors, so things had loosened up. It was still not that free now, but at least one could openly express their dissatisfaction with the political scene.
The region where this free tone was most prevalent, excluding Hong Kong and Macau, was undoubtedly Shandong, which was ruled by the Jinan warlords. Among the cities, Jinan and Qingdao were at the forefront.
In the case of Jinan, it was the de facto base of the warlords, with their temporary government offices and so on. In the case of Qingdao, it was because the U.S. military had begun to station there. The citizens of Qingdao believed that even if a war broke out or oppression began, the U.S. military, the guardian of liberal democracy, would protect them.
They thought that if the U.S. gave a warning to the Jinan warlords, they would take care of it on their own, but in reality, it wasn’t much different. The Jinan warlords were ready to sell anything to survive.
However, even in Qingdao, where the image of the U.S. was at its worst, they thought of the U.S. military stationed in Qingdao as an intangible device that exerted a kind of political deterrent, but they were not very favorable. The protests against the U.S. military presence subtly continued, but their strength did not increase or decrease consistently.
That was because these protests were actually a collaboration between the Jinan warlords’ leadership and the U.S. If they unilaterally suppressed the protesters, a rebellion would surely break out, and if that happened, they would have to suppress the rebellion, and naturally, the U.S. military, which had lost its justification, would soon leave Qingdao.
If that happened, the U.S. would have wasted money after stationing troops, and the Jinan warlords would have lost their only ally and powerful foreign power, so they staged a showy protest against the U.S. military presence.
Then, what about the communist party, which was closest to being the most powerful?
“Things are flowing differently than I thought.”
“That’s right. Frankly, I personally expected them to maintain the status quo for about 3 or 4 months and then return to the party’s embrace.”
The communist party and Li Keqiang thought so, and Bush also thought so. The problem was that something happened that no one had anticipated. They thought that one or two of the warlords would change, but none of them changed at all?
This was definitely an anomaly. This was why Bush actively deployed the CIA, which he didn’t want to touch if possible, and why the communist party, which was going to wage a fake war, was now about to wage a real war.
The war that the communist party had to wage was supposed to be a war in name only. They had gathered their forces diligently because they thought that one or two would attack in earnest, but now they were about to wage a real war in which people died outside the communist party’s controlled territory.
This was not the kind of thing that could be solved even if the U.S. actively cooperated. Jinan was as good as taken because the U.S. military was stationed there, but the rest had to shed blood and devastate the land?
However, in the case of Lanzhou, it was caught between India and the communist party, and it was also suffering from food shortages, so it was the most cooperative and favorable warlord to the communist party. As threats approached under dire circumstances, they gradually realized that they would not be able to maintain even a proper army, let alone warlord independence.
Therefore, Li Keqiang was thinking of literally sweeping away the Chengdu and Guangzhou warlords, who were concentrated in the south, and the Nanjing warlords. The problem was that the odds of winning were about equal if they fought head-on. Moreover, the attitude they were taking towards this war was also a problem.
The communist party’s goal was to somehow preserve the factories and population in China and end the civil war, and the warlords’ ultimate goal was to survive no matter what. And the moment the warlords’ base disappeared, death awaited them.
Just thinking about how treason has been dealt with historically, both in the East and West, was enough to instill fear. If they were lucky, they would be shot, and they might be displayed in the Hall of Loyalty as heinous rebels who tried to divide China forever! As taxidermied specimens instead of wax figures!
What could be more terrible than this? In any case, while the warlords were even devising strategies to self-destruct if things went wrong, the communist party was advancing its troops to the borders of the military regions, which had now become borders, to put pressure on them, while diplomatically approaching them as a kind of appeasement.
The problem was that none of them believed the promises that they would be spared. They had seen with their own eyes how the communist party had dealt with its enemies, so they knew very well that retreating meant being taxidermied.
Since their perceptions differed, the communist party’s diplomatic efforts went around and around without any success. And on the day India completely drove out the Lanzhou and Chengdu military regions and Tibet and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region declared sacred independence, the communist party and the warlords’ cold war, which was not a cold war, ended, and a proper war began.