Around the time unprecedented refugee policies were being implemented in Europe and the Brexit vote was taking place in Northern Ireland, significant events were unfolding in Asia.
Notably, both the Uyghur region and China, facing labor shortages, began accepting refugees. Uyghur benefited from a low-cost labor force, while China, under scrutiny from the United States, had more complex motivations. Regardless, the situation for refugees in these two regions was largely defined by these factors.
Crossing the Atlantic was virtually impossible for these displaced people. With unconditional expulsion awaiting them just outside European borders, how could they manage such a journey empty-handed?
While some individuals occasionally managed to cross with the help of brokers, their numbers were insignificant. Furthermore, even with brokers, the success rate of crossing the Atlantic safely was extremely low.
Consequently, some refugees took advantage of Germany’s policies to return to the Middle East. Others crossed the Mediterranean or Turkey into Africa, while some dispersed through Central Asia by land, seeking refuge in China and elsewhere. Many ended up settling illegally along the way.
The primary concern in Asia revolved around the influx of refugees into China. These refugees didn’t intend to remain in China permanently. Their ultimate goal was Japan, which they perceived as a more developed nation offering better opportunities. South Korea, on the other hand, was widely rumored to have become a difficult place for refugees due to the aftermath of the North Korean merger, leading them to avoid it. They believed Korea’s situation mirrored China’s current struggles.
And their assessment wasn’t entirely inaccurate. The South Korean economy teetered on the brink of collapse, with the nation struggling to maintain its current state.
While some continued to prosper, national-level welfare improvements seemed unlikely. Even Gwacheon City, once known for its extravagant spending on infrastructure projects, had scaled back significantly. What was once a tactic to secure larger budgets had become a struggle to even maintain existing public facilities due to financial constraints.
The funds that would have been allocated to these projects were instead generously invested in developing the formerly North Korean territories. Those who had speculated on land before the development announcement reaped enormous profits, and new concrete roads were constructed in remote mountain villages, fueling a national reconstruction effort.
In reality, the situation demanded such an effort. Frankly, everything in North Korea, except for the roads, needed to be rebuilt. Even the roads, aside from the main thoroughfares, were in such disrepair that they ideally needed replacement, but such a massive undertaking would have stalled the entire construction process, so it was postponed.
The buildings, constructed with outdated methods, cost-cutting measures, and cheap materials, were potential disasters waiting to happen, reminiscent of the Sampoong Department Store collapse [a major structural failure in Seoul in 1995]. Given their age and poor construction, immediate collapse wouldn’t have been surprising.
Regardless, all of this needed to be torn down and rebuilt. Fortunately, unlike South Korea, many smaller buildings and villa-style apartments were already occupied by companies, offering some relief.
The main issue was that the remaining infrastructure was primarily public or state-owned, not private. The number of public corporations in Korea was substantial.
In any case, the crucial point was that whether it was a quasi-governmental organization or a delegated execution type, the country’s money had to be spent, which was impossible given South Korea’s current tax revenue.
However, even with a generous timeframe of 20 to 30 years, significant side effects were inevitable. The already widening gap between the rich and the poor would skyrocket.
Moreover, instead of leveling the playing field, wealth from the South would be funneled into the North. After about 5 to 10 years, complaints would inevitably surface.
Similar situations had occurred in other countries. The initial enthusiasm for unification would wane. This wouldn’t be an issue for a country capable of suppressing dissent.
However, South Korea was no longer such a country. Thirty years prior, it might have been feasible, but Koreans, having overthrown military regimes and dictatorships through sacrifice, had become fiercely resistant to government overreach.
This explains why the police in South Korea often appeared hesitant to assert their authority. The key takeaway was that there was no easy solution. The current stability was largely due to American capital. If that capital were withdrawn, South Korea would likely collapse.
Frankly, any expert, whether in South Korea or even within the United States, would have recognized that Bush, if not for life, would have pushed for a third-term constitutional amendment and held long-term power.
Even Israel, recognizing this, acted accordingly in its dealings with Palestine.
Unsurprisingly, the South Korean government was preoccupied with appeasing the United States. This explained their initial reluctance to send troops, followed by their eventual compliance with the US request.
Firstly, the United States was the dominant global power. Without its support, South Korea risked not only re-division but a return to the Three Kingdoms period [a period of Korean history from 57 BCE – 668 CE], such was the perceived instability.
Therefore, South Korea found itself in domestic and international turmoil, with the government striving to maintain the status quo and make incremental progress.
Moreover, refugees were not oblivious to the situation. They gleaned information about Asia through news reports and learned that East Asia was generally unwelcoming to refugees.
Meanwhile, China’s acceptance of refugees due to pressing circumstances marked a shift, leading to a broader acceptance of refugees in East Asia.
Were the refugees in China being exploited for cheap labor? Not exactly. While wages were said to be fair, they were still Chinese wages within the Chinese labor market.
Consequently, many refugees were dissatisfied in China and either returned to Uyghur or illegally entered Southeast Asia, Korea, and Japan, scattering across the globe. Japan received the fewest refugees, or rather, had the fewest ‘illegal’ entries.
Korea had already declared its inability to officially accept refugees, citing the astronomical sums being spent on improving the lives of North Korean residents to a refugee-like standard, jeopardizing the nation’s very existence.
Previously, the government had stated, ‘We cannot accept refugees because we have to feed North Korean residents at the time of unification,’ and this had become a reality. While Korea had a plausible justification, Japan lacked one. While a justification could be fabricated, it would inevitably be clumsy and unconvincing.
Therefore, to prevent illegal entry, they decided to leverage their efficient bureaucratic system. They would officially accept refugees but implement ‘strict standards’ for refugee screening to deter illegal immigration.
These strict standards were virtually impossible to meet. However, once implemented, illegal entry almost disappeared. This allowed them to record personal information, enabling quicker apprehension even if refugees evaded surveillance.
This was essentially a decision to reject refugees. However, Japan’s domestic situation wasn’t dire. It wasn’t booming, but it wasn’t in recession either. Abe Shinzo, who might have stepped down due to health issues stemming from market instability, remained healthy and Prime Minister.
The ‘health’ mentioned here was according to the cabinet’s public statements.
They seemed to believe that the current situation was akin to wartime, leading to subtle frugality due to stress, which was a positive side effect.
In any case, Abe remained in power and focused on the economy, allowing Japan to maintain a stable middle ground. His economic policies, later known by his name, would become a global topic, but that was in the future.
This allowed Abe to lay the groundwork for long-term rule. Due to a stronger right-wing public opinion than in the original timeline, any ‘strong-looking policy’ he promoted was readily approved.
The standard for ‘looks strong’ was based on the choice of words.
Regardless of the substance, policies with decent-sounding names were praised. The policy of manipulating the public, prevalent since the Japanese colonial era, was proving effective. This wasn’t simply due to the people being unintelligent but rather being swayed by the social ‘atmosphere’.
Supporting a particular political party or politician doesn’t indicate intelligence. Even highly educated individuals can be fervent believers in pseudo-religions.
This atmosphere was fueled by the situation in East Asia. China and Korea appeared to be declining, while Japan remained stable, leading people to embrace a sense of national pride, even if reluctantly.
China’s decline was genuine due to the civil war, while Korea’s economic decline was, to some extent, a deliberately cultivated image to the outside world.
In any case, a sense of unity, unseen since the bubble burst [referring to the Japanese asset price bubble of the late 1980s and early 1990s], was established with ‘Japan as expected,’ and Abe was using his political power to dismantle the existing framework.
Abe had no intention of stepping down after a single term as Prime Minister.
Abe’s ambition was to essentially control Japan, and he was making progress due to the unexpected surge in neo-nationalism.
Even without this, his long-term rule would have been successful. This wasn’t just a gentle push but a jet engine propelling him forward.
A country is a country, but its essence lies in the will of its people. While the people can sometimes be ignored, in a government with even a superficial democratic facade, their unity and support can give the country wings.
Whether these are the wings of Icarus, made of beeswax and feathers, or strong carbon fiber wings powered by a jet engine remains to be seen. But once these wings are attached, the country will relentlessly pursue its goals.
Even if the final destination is another economic recession, unlike the past bubble economy.
While Japan was rejecting refugees and focusing on stabilizing its economy, the countries of Southeast Asia were on high alert.
They were accustomed to passing refugees around like a hot potato in East Asia but were unprepared to receive such a large influx all at once.
This would have been the case regardless, but none of these countries were considered developed. Vietnam was the strongest, but it was only a regional power.
Being merely a regional power didn’t mean Vietnam was weak, but at that moment, it was undeniably vulnerable.
With nearly two million refugees having entered illegally, how could it not be? From the refugees’ perspective, they had arrived in a relatively well-off country, but one that was neither wealthy enough to support them all for free, nor inclined to do so.
Thus, they eventually devised a plan to pass the refugees on to Indonesia. Even in Europe, where international opinion held some sway, the strongest measure implemented was ‘deportation,’ so massacres were out of the question. Above all, there was the ever-watchful United States.
Indeed, the U.S. kept a close eye on Asia. They consistently championed the ‘human rights’ they themselves had defined.
To be precise, the U.S. as a nation wasn’t particularly concerned with the refugee crisis in Asia, unlike the situation in Europe. However, President George W. Bush, in the highest office, disapproved of the situation and frequently interfered in domestic affairs.
Therefore, as mentioned above, Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, mindful of the U.S., passed the refugees to Indonesia like a hot potato, loading them onto all sorts of ‘dubious vessels,’ indirectly hoping for their demise.
The ‘dubious vessels’ referred to any kind of boat that could float, including old, rickety rowboats.
In fact, most of them were exactly that. Transforming land people, who had somehow made it this far, into miserable boat people on the vast ocean was an instant process.
But a miracle occurred. While they had predicted that about half would survive and arrive, they never dreamed that over 98% would successfully reach Indonesia on those wretched boats.
Indonesia was in ruins following a major earthquake. Moreover, its relationship with the U.S. was somewhat strained. To be precise, it was at odds with George W. Bush personally, but for the time being, that amounted to the same thing.
Things might change in about a year, but at least until then, they couldn’t ignore the U.S. This wasn’t solely Indonesia’s decision. Already dependent on the U.S. for weapons, Indonesia judged that if it didn’t navigate this situation independently, it would be dragged around by the U.S. like a dog until the hegemony established by the U.S. collapsed.
In any case, from a domestic political standpoint, it wasn’t a bad decision, and it wasn’t necessarily wrong, since the U.S. wasn’t the only option.
The problem was these refugees. If they refused entry, abandoned them, or sent them back, that president, who was always eager to criticize Indonesia, would relentlessly attack them, and Indonesia wouldn’t stand a chance.
Now that it was confirmed there would be no constitutional amendment, people were talking about the twilight of the Bush era, which had spanned father and son. But there was also his brother, Jeb Bush.
The American people had great expectations for the Bush family. Although he didn’t run this time, rumors abounded that he had done so intentionally.
If one family ran consecutively, wouldn’t it look as if the Bush family almost owned America? What else would you call it if not a dynasty?
That in itself was an enormous political burden. America was a place that recoiled at easily recognizable authoritarianism. A rebellious spirit was ingrained in its very national character. The way to handle this was to elevate the people, pretend to be ethically correct, and act as if they cared about human rights. They did everything to appear ‘nice.’
Of course, that alone wasn’t enough. They added the spin that their country was great. America was great, and all the bad things happening now were to maintain that greatness. And if good things happened, it was because America was a great nation.
Although somewhat faded due to the forced implementation of the metric system, Bush’s popularity remained because he had led America to an even greater position.
In reality, they just believed it because it was advertised on TV. The fact that they were enjoying peace while the rest of the world was in turmoil, and that the wars they had fought were to protect that peace, was a source of pride.
Moreover, and decisively, the ‘people’s livelihood’ had improved significantly. In fact, this was the alpha and omega [the beginning and the end]. No matter how much the country was advertised as doing well, if the people’s livelihood deteriorated, the regime’s popularity would eventually plummet.
The secret to the Bush administration’s popularity was reasonable prices, poverty reduction, and business. Among these, prices were not Bush’s responsibility. In fact, he hardly intervened, which meant the free market was maintaining a reasonable level.
Poverty reduction was something Bush directly intervened in. He sometimes invested his own wealth appropriately for propaganda purposes and ran the administration that way.
There was no shortage of money. They brought in all sorts of goods from China and invested generously in dilapidated public works. Even capitalists who were swimming in money called Bush a communist, albeit a great one.
That’s because they tasted the sweetness of that money through the national projects Bush 추진 [pushed forward]. So, they couldn’t help but praise him. National projects sometimes became a disease that ruined companies, but the Bush administration’s national projects were a cornucopia of money.
For example, didn’t they work hard to defend the shale industry in the oil war to save it? Thanks to that, the shale industry didn’t wither, and the money invested by oil companies didn’t go to waste.
They weren’t stupid enough not to know that this was entirely thanks to Bush, who had 미리 꾸역꾸역 [in advance, forcefully] created war funds for the oil war.
At this point, they felt a sense of gratitude that went beyond mere political-business collusion or self-interest. They tried to cooperate in any way that didn’t harm their businesses. For example, the metric system project was like that.
The oil industry is modern civilization itself. Even if you make furniture only out of wood, oil is still used to cut and transport that wood.
Even with manual labor, that’s the case, but in a factory, electricity is naturally used to process the wood. And that electricity comes from oil-guzzling thermal power plants.
In any case, it wasn’t impossible for oil companies to control all the companies that exist in the modern world if they set their minds to it. Of course, the reason they couldn’t do that was because the country existed. But if that country cooperated, the story was different.
Thus, at least for businesses, if not for the general public, the metric system was truly forced upon them.
Returning to the story of Indonesia, based on this background, they were in a rather difficult situation. In the end, they weighed their options, ‘which is less painful,’ receiving refugees or not receiving them, and concluded that they had to receive them.
One reason was that once the U.S. started harassing them, there would be no end to it. But the most important reason was that if they sent them back as they were, they couldn’t screw over the other countries that had instigated this situation.
The first thing Indonesia did after receiving the refugees was to put them to work on the reconstruction sites. The refugees readily agreed since they could receive money. This had happened in China as well. It was just a repetition of that.
The problem started from here. Indonesia wanted to export those refugees. What this meant was that they wanted to dump them in Malaysia. After all, Sumatra Island was also a mess due to the earthquake.
Where is Sumatra Island? Isn’t it right next to the famous Strait of Malacca?
Why would a strait be called a strait? They were already people who had come from Vietnam on rowboats anyway. If the ‘field work’ was somewhat harsh, people would 탈주 [desert] from their jobs. If even the shelters were harsh, wouldn’t they cross over to the other side?
Moreover, wouldn’t they want to go even more if the city right next door was as dreamy as the four dragons [referring to the Asian Tigers: South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, known for their rapid economic growth]? That was Singapore. This way, they could send some, if not all. In fact, in just a few days, 500,000 out of 2 million disappeared, showing off their spirit.
Singapore, not to mention Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries above it, were horrified. They created a bizarre phenomenon of praising other countries as superior to their own, with refugees praising other countries as 낙후 [backward] and scraping together even their last pennies to praise each other.
The only one who remained unmoved among these was India.
India’s ‘some’ cultural awareness was more primitive than imagined. Starting with its unique hygiene conditions, which were the most representative, to the way it exercised public authority. Something was seriously twisted in the country.
Among them, what helped the most in maintaining and improving the status quo was none other than the way it exercised public authority. In India, the fact that the police beat people first if they didn’t like them was by no means a 허황한 [groundless] image or exaggeration created by TV.
India’s public authority beat refugees and its own citizens alike like dogs on 복날 [dog days of summer, a Korean reference to when dog meat is traditionally eaten, implying harsh treatment] if they didn’t like them. This tendency brought about resistance from the refugees, but it was thoroughly ignored, just like the saying, ‘When in Rome, do as the Romans do.’
After receiving a cultural shock that they had never heard of even in the notorious Islamic world, where they were beaten if they caused problems, they were quietly staying in India. This was India’s secret. It was an idea that could never be conceived in other countries and a culture unique to India that could only exist in India.
Whether we can call this primitive today is debatable. If there is the most effective way to respond to global problems, then it should be called traditional or advanced, not primitive.
Thus, India became the most stable country after the United States. Pakistan, which was next to it, was almost the only factor that turned that stability into instability. However, as long as Afghanistan remained a card that could 압박 [pressure] Pakistan, it was all the same in the end.
The problem was that India had not solved any other internal problems besides this.
The political world was still a mess, there were so many opposition parties that you couldn’t count them all on both hands, and there were so many mouths talking that you would get 노이로제 [neurosis, a Korean term for extreme stress].
However, India’s opinions could be unified for a while due to securing influence over Tibet and Uyghur and the downfall of China, which could be called its arch-rival. The problem was that it was only up to that point.
India still had many problems and, accordingly, had cultures and ways of thinking that went against the times. All these problems meant that unless India dominated the world like the United States, beyond Asia, they would eventually come back like a boomerang.
But the only consolation was that it wasn’t happening now.
Thus, today, no country can even discuss the political situation without mentioning the Middle East refugee problem.