He Opened A Matchmaking Agency In 18Th Century London [EN]: Chapter 159

159. Lucy’s Love

Mid-April, 1782, Theo Marriage Agency.

Early morning.

Theo urgently summoned Director Scipio Marshall and Deputy Director Simon Hughes to his office on the fifth floor.

It was to discuss matters related to the French trade agreement.

Theo continued with the information he had heard from the palace.

“…For that reason, His Majesty the King seemed inclined to follow the opinion of Chancellor of the Exchequer Andrew Hall regarding the trade treaty with France.”

“If he follows the Chancellor’s opinion…?”

“It seems they intend to proceed with negotiations in a direction that raises tariff rates on agricultural products where France has an absolute advantage. He believes this is a necessary measure to protect our agricultural products.”

At this time, England had already concluded trade agreements with many countries, so this agreement could be seen as one of the usual procedures.

However, the problem was the other party.

The counterpart in this trade agreement was France, the strongest country in Europe and a long-standing adversary.

Moreover, the scale of the trade agreement was on a different level from previous agreements with other countries.

Almost all items were on the negotiating table, so King George was racking his brains trying to calculate the gains and losses of each one.

If England benefited from the trade treaty concluded through these negotiations, it would be like pouring oil on the already burning economy, but if it suffered losses, it would be like pouring cold water on the overall thriving British industry.

King George spent days agonizing over the trade treaty negotiations with key ministers.

He frequently invited experts from various fields to listen to their advice.

And a few days ago, he urgently summoned Theo to the State Council to hear the situation and seek his opinion.

However, Theo frowned as he listened to the explanation about the treaty.

According to his historical knowledge, the large-scale trade agreement discussion with France at this time was clearly referring to the ‘Eden Treaty,’ considered the world’s first free trade agreement (FTA).

England and France had fought numerous wars, starting with the Hundred Years’ War in 1337, and became complete enemies due to the American Revolutionary War.

However, after the American Revolutionary War, England and France, facing significant financial difficulties, concluded the largest trade agreement called the ‘Eden Treaty’ based on their respective calculations.

The sudden conclusion of a free trade agreement between England and France, who were famous for their bitter animosity, was such an extraordinary event that it was recorded as a major event that shook the entire Europe.

That was because the two countries, which had shed blood and fought for hundreds of years, suddenly joined hands and signed a free trade agreement, so other neighboring countries could not help but be surprised.

The name ‘Eden Treaty’ was given because of the outstanding performance of William Eden, who came out as the chief negotiator on the British side, and to commemorate his achievements, the treaty was named after his surname.

However, for some reason, the name of ‘William Eden’ was not heard at all in the State Council.

‘Looking at the content of the meeting now, it is crystal clear that it is related to the Eden Treaty, but if there is no negotiator with the surname Eden on the British side… does this also mean that it is flowing differently from actual history?’

In later records, the ultimate victor of the ‘Eden Treaty’ was England, and the defeated country was France.

It was believed that the great losses suffered by France due to the Eden Treaty further accelerated the impoverished life, which fueled the anger of the people, and this became a powerful driving force that triggered the French Revolution.

The fact that the French National Assembly, which seized power after the French Revolution, immediately abolished the Eden Treaty also came from this context.

Considering this historical order, the Eden Treaty should have occurred much later, around the time of the French Revolution.

However, the fact that the story of the Eden Treaty is already coming out suggests that it is progressing faster than the history Theo knew.

Moreover, the appearance of history was changing little by little.

The absence of William Eden as an outstanding British negotiator.

Here, France was not trapped in the quagmire of war due to the recognition of American independence.

If so, it could be said that the appearance of the Eden Treaty, which was evaluated as absolutely advantageous to England, could flow in an unexpected direction.

Theo decided to think more carefully and then convey his opinion on this trade treaty to King George, and stepped back.

* * *

“That’s why I’m going to organize my thoughts and tell His Majesty around noon today. But I’m not enough on my own, so I’ve urgently called the two of you, who are economic experts, to get your advice.”

Director Scipio, who had heard the detailed situation at Windsor Castle from Theo, first offered his opinion.

“Hmm… if the treaty is concluded, it seems that a few popular items among the goods with greatly lowered tariffs will lead the overall atmosphere. If the popularity of those few items becomes overwhelmingly high, a trade imbalance will naturally occur, flowing in a form where one country suffers a great loss.”

Theo nodded.

“I agree with the director’s opinion. If goods from both countries are opened at low prices, there will definitely be products that are popular and whose demand explodes, and there will also be products that do not. However, the problem seems to be that it is difficult to predict which products from which country will develop such a situation.”

At that time, Deputy Director Simon Hughes presented the data he had brought and said.

“While trading with France, I have been collecting and organizing data to understand the overall flow of French industry in my own way for several years. Based on this, it seems possible to predict which products’ demand will increase within France and reflect it in the tariff rate agreement.”

Simon Hughes, who had a lot of interest in economic indicators, had been collecting various trade indicators of European countries and accumulating data from before.

In particular, he was fluent in French, and he had a vast amount of research data on the French economy, which was an economic and cultural powerhouse at the time.

In modern society, related data can be found with just a few searches, but in the 18th century, when information exchange was extremely limited, the value of the data accumulated by the deputy director was tremendous.

Director Scipio was very surprised as he examined the data that Deputy Director Hughes had handed him.

“You are really amazing. How did you organize international trends so well?”

“I thought it was necessary for operating a trading company. Actually, it was also fun. Haha.”

Theo, who was skimming through the related data, said.

“Of course, the French side will really bet their lives on this trade agreement because it is a very urgent time economically for them.”

France, which barely avoided financial collapse because the funds that should have been poured into the American Revolutionary War were not spent, was in fact in such a bad economic state that it could be considered to have lost its ability to repay national debt.

France had to pour all its national power into developing manufacturing, which was far behind England, and securing export channels for competitive agricultural products, but it had to spend a significant portion of its annual budget on repaying national debt.

For France, which needed a definite breakthrough, the British market, which was close at hand, could not help but be seen as the best prey.

Moreover, French exporters, who were experiencing great difficulties in raw material procurement and exports, had long been clamoring for the government to open the British market.

“In times like these, France is not stupid and will never accept a tariff agreement that is disadvantageous to them.

In other words, if we approach the negotiations with the attitude of raising tariffs on French agricultural products to protect our agricultural products, this trade treaty can never be achieved.

However, this negotiation will not be easily broken because both France and we must trade in order to breathe financially.

In the end, the negotiations will probably move in a direction that lowers tariffs on items that are most advantageous to each other.”

Deputy Director Hughes opened his mouth.

“If that’s what you’re saying, Representative, then France will have to lower tariffs on agricultural products, and we in England will have to lower tariffs on manufactured goods?”

“That’s right. France has an absolute advantage in agricultural products, and we have it in manufacturing.”

“However, French manufacturers are being pushed back by the powerful British manufacturing industry and are not able to gain any momentum… Will France really accept that?

Similarly, if French agricultural products with lowered tariffs enter England, our agricultural products, which have lost both quality and price competitiveness, will have a hard time finding a place, so will our government easily accept that?”

Deputy Director Hughes’ question was actually what Theo was curious about.

He knew the overall result of the Eden Treaty as a historical fact, but Theo did not know the detailed inside story of how such an agreement was concluded.

At that time, Director Scipio opened his mouth with a twinkle in his eyes.

“Like you, Representative, I think that in the end, we will agree to lower tariff rates on items where each of us is most dominant because that is the only way to conclude a trade treaty.

And if we do well, it seems that we can draw out France’s misjudgment.”

“Draw out a misjudgment?”

“Agricultural products and manufactured goods are items that show different market response speeds and effects.

In other words, manufactured goods will lead to immediate profits when released into the market, but agricultural products tend to gradually encroach.

France, the best agricultural country in Europe, will be confident that if it greatly lowers tariffs on its agricultural products and exports them, it will one day completely dominate the British agricultural market.

They are calculating that even if they lose money right now, they will receive huge profits in the future. They may even be considering weaponizing food.

And they will actively support their manufacturing industry with the huge profits earned through agricultural products and try to compete with the British manufacturing market.”

“Oh? Isn’t that really what’s going to happen? That’s why our government is trying to impose high tariffs on French agricultural products.”

Director Scipio shook his head, pointing to French agricultural production indicators with his hand.

“It won’t be as easy as you think. Look at this data. France is definitely in an absolute advantage over England in the agricultural sector. But if we push agricultural exports as the top priority in this agreement, what will happen to the French domestic agricultural market?”

“Hmm… Since they are betting their lives on exports to England, the amount of agricultural products will be absolutely insufficient in France. Then… the price of agricultural products in their own country will naturally jump.”

“That’s right. If they bet their lives through a national agreement, the French government will roll up their sleeves and jump in to export agricultural products. Then the price of domestic agricultural products in France will soar due to the reduced amount, which will soon raise prices and lead to the collapse of the working class economy.

But what if there is a big crop failure here? Didn’t France have a huge crop failure the year before last?”

The 18th century Europe was in the Little Ice Age [a period of regional cooling].

The temperature in Europe during this period was about 2 degrees lower than in the 20th century, and this low temperature severely damaged crop growth, which was the main cause of crop failures in Europe at the time.

Theo answered as if he understood.

“Ah- If there is a famine and agricultural production plummets, not only will national income decrease due to reduced exports, but ordinary French working class people will not be able to eat bread properly, and in that situation, the conditions for investing in manufacturing will further deteriorate, and the trade imbalance will worsen?”

“Yes, Representative. That’s exactly it!”

“Hmm, then it would be advantageous for us to finish this agreement as soon as possible without dragging it out?”

“That’s right. If we rush as if we are blinded by immediate gains, the French side, who have been betting their lives on this agreement and reconsidering everything, will regard it as our misjudgment. Instead, they will generously lower the tariff rates on our manufactured goods even more.”

Theo’s expression became subtle as he shared his opinions and wrote down important details.

The content being exchanged in the representative’s office now was the exact opposite of what was discussed at Windsor Castle a few days ago.

At Windsor Castle, they were trying to raise tariff rates on French agricultural products, saying that they should protect British agriculture. And because of this, they heard that they expected considerable difficulties in negotiations with the French side.

Without calculating the specific situation and only looking at obvious self-interests, a plausible strategy could not come out.

However, as he talked with Director Scipio and Deputy Director Simon Hughes, specific measures came to Theo’s mind.

Scribble-

Theo’s hand, writing on the paper, became busy.

* * *

After the meeting, Theo quickly left the representative’s office with the organized data to go to Windsor Castle.

At that time, he ran into Lucy, who was coming up with member report data.

“Representative? Are you leaving now?”

“Yeah, I think I have to go to Windsor Castle now. There is a very important agenda that I have to report to His Majesty today.”

“Oh, is that so? Then I will put the report on the newly joined members from last month on your desk.”

“Okay, just put it up. I’ll come and check it out this afternoon.”

“Yes! Have a good trip, Representative.”

“Okay!”

As soon as he finished speaking, Theo ran down to the first floor.

‘He must be very busy. Well, His Majesty the King is always looking for him.’

Clunk-

As Lucy entered the representative’s office with the data, the table was cluttered with various data and teacups, as if the meeting had just ended.

Lucy put the report data on one side of the desk and started cleaning the table.

However, a document with several asterisks drawn on it caught Lucy’s eye as she cleared the piles of paper.

When she picked up the document and looked at it, there were phrases saying that it was a matter to be reported to His Majesty the King, along with marks and underlines expressing important content, and even numbers were assigned here and there.

‘Oh? Isn’t this an important document that you need to take with you? It seems like you forgot to take it because you left in such a hurry?’

It’s been more than 5 minutes since he left. He will already be gone.

‘What should I do….’

After thinking for a while, Lucy seemed to have made up her mind and ran down with the document.

Windsor Castle Entrance

“Whoa- Whoa- We’re here. This is Windsor Castle.”

“Please wait a moment. I’ll be right back.”

Lucy, who arrived at Windsor Castle, got out of the carriage, holding the briefcase she had brought from the representative’s office preciously in her arms.

Tak-

Lucy, who got out of the carriage, looked around Windsor Castle and walked hesitantly.

‘Ah… this is Windsor Castle….’

It had already been several years since she came to London, but today was the first time she had seen Windsor Castle up close.

However, when she stood in front of the magnificent Windsor Castle, Lucy was at a loss as to where to go or who to ask.

She didn’t think that she would be let in just by saying the name ‘Theo Sanderson’ in this place where she didn’t know anyone.

‘Where is the entrance?’

Moreover, after the London rebellion, the security around Windsor Castle was even stricter than before.

Lucy shrank even more like a guilty person at the glares of the stern-looking guards who passed by without a break.

‘What should I do… Should I just go back…?’

She looked down at the bag containing the data.

It seemed like really important data, and if she didn’t take it, the representative would be in trouble for no reason.

Wasn’t he the grateful person who praised her for her quick wit and even entrusted her with the position of marriage agency manager?

Now that she had come this far, she couldn’t back down just because she was a little scared.

Lucy wanted to help the representative even a little.

“Hey, you?”

As Lucy continued to approach Windsor Castle with an anxious look, a large guard approached and shouted.

“Yes? No, I’m…”

As Lucy mumbled in a faint voice, the guard fiddled with the rifle slung over his shoulder and urged her.

“What are you? Do you know where this is, wandering around without fear? This woman is suspicious?”

His rough dialect with a strong accent turned Lucy’s head white, who was already frightened.

“That’s… that’s not it.”

“Hey! Come here! This woman is suspicious in many ways!”

The guard even called a fellow soldier who was far away.

This time, an even scarier-looking guard approached.

“What’s wrong? Who is this woman?”

“I don’t know. She doesn’t say anything. But she’s been looking around since earlier, so she’s suspicious in many ways.”

Lucy plucked up her courage and explained her business.

“I am an employee of Baron Theo Sanderson’s company. I came here because I have important documents that I need to give to the Baron now. Just a moment….”

As Lucy tried to open her bag and take out the documents, the guards stepped back and pointed their guns at her.

“Uh-huh, what are you doing? Don’t move, stay still!”

“Yes?”

“Stay still! Still! Put the bag down there as it is! Hurry!”

“……?”

It was then.

Clatter- Clatter- Clatter-

A light sound of hooves seemed to be heard behind Lucy, and then a dignified voice of medium and low tone flowed out.

“What’s all the commotion?”

“That woman has been loitering around since earlier, and when I asked her because she was suspicious, she said she came to see some baron… She’s trying to take something out of her bag, so I thought it might be a weapon.”

“Company Commander! We should arrest her immediately and check her identity.”

The company commander looked down at the open bag from above and said.

“There are no weapons. Just a bunch of papers. And what harm does this lady do that the men are making such a fuss?”

“That’s… last time, a crazy woman was wielding a knife, wasn’t she?”

“Can’t you tell at a glance? That woman had mental problems. It’s completely different now, isn’t it?”

Clatter- Clatter-

The company commander, who turned his horse’s head and faced Lucy head-on, asked in a soft voice.

“Miss? Are you here to see someone?”

The company commander, wearing a long sword on a white belt with a shiny silver buckle and looking down at her from a chestnut horse.

The company commander on horseback was Captain Jude Rogers of the Royal Horse Guards.

Lucy’s eyes widened as she looked up at the company commander.

‘……!’

Unlike Captain Rogers’ eyes, which seemed to be seeing Lucy for the first time, she seemed to know him.

Lucy’s face quickly turned red and she quickly lowered her head.

“Miss? You don’t have to be afraid. I’m trying to help you. Do you have anyone you’re looking for at Windsor Castle? If you tell me, I’ll help you.”

“Ah… Yes. I came to see Baron Sanderson… He left behind important documents that he handed over to His Majesty the King.”

When Theo’s name came out, Captain Rogers quickly jumped off the horse with a surprised expression.

“Regiment Commander? No… Are you talking about Baron Theo Sanderson?”

“Yes.”

“Then, give me those documents. I saw the Baron going into the palace a little while ago. I’ll deliver them.”

Lucy, who covered her flushed face with one hand, quickly handed over the documents.

“Here it is, Lieutenant!”

At that moment, Captain Rogers tilted his head.

It was strange that a civilian who didn’t know much about the military, especially a woman, called his rank ‘Lieutenant’.

“Excuse me, do you know me?”

Then Lucy quickly waved her hand.

“Ah… No! Just… looking at the rank insignia….”

“Ah, yes.”

Seeing that she mistook the captain’s rank insignia for a lieutenant, it seemed that she was not a girl who knew properly.

Captain Rogers nodded nonchalantly, glanced at the documents once, and then jumped back onto the horse.

Then, he instructed the guards.

“Hey! This is someone who came because she had something to deliver to the Regiment Commander. Don’t be rude to the lady, and make sure to escort her well!”

“Yes, I understand, Company Commander!”

Captain Rogers smiled and made eye contact with Lucy and turned his horse towards the palace.

Yee-haw-

Clatter- Clatter-

Lucy stared blankly at his back as he quickly moved away for a long time.