< 226 >
“Do we have anything else we need to do here?”
“No, sir. We could advance further, but unless the South Korean government requests it, securing the peace around Nampo Port should be sufficient.”
“That’s a shame. I’ve been dreaming of unification without war.”
War. What is war, really? Isn’t it an armed conflict between nations? Can we even call what we’re doing a war? I mean, there’s hardly any resistance. When you say war, don’t you mean casualties on both sides and firing missiles that cost billions to break the enemy’s will to resist? Isn’t that the common understanding of war?
“Can we even call this a war? And can we even call this unification by force?”
“Even if we’re entering without significant bloodshed and sweeping through with minimal engagement, it’s still technically war. Force is being used, strictly speaking, isn’t it? With our support and clear justification, South Korea won’t face significant international criticism.”
Speaking of American support, a thorny issue that even Bush previously avoided came to mind: Israel. The Israeli situation was a problem that was difficult to handle delicately. The issues involving Israel were incredibly complex and far-reaching.
As it happened, an official document regarding Israel had just arrived. People tend to avoid things they don’t want to see, but this position didn’t allow for such luxuries. While others might ignore small problems, this position could turn those problems into direct hits that shake the nation. That’s why, frankly, every moment felt overwhelming.
Israel wanted shale gas development technology. People often joked that God gave Israel milk and honey but not oil, but in reality, Israel also had vast amounts of oil and natural gas reserves. However, the extraction profitability was so poor that they couldn’t even consider developing them.
However, Israel would later proceed with drilling, even at a loss, because relying on other countries for energy supply could be a critical vulnerability in national security. Even the vaunted Israeli military couldn’t function without oil. The Iron Dome [a mobile all-weather air defense system developed by Israel] that Israel would later develop would be just a pile of scrap metal without electricity.
Anyway, what’s important now is that Israel has asked to share shale gas technology.
‘Even if they get our technology, it’ll likely fail due to profitability issues, won’t it?’
Should we teach them hydraulic fracturing [a technique used to release petroleum, natural gas, shale gas, etc. for extraction] instead? No, do we even need to tell them about this in the first place? Eventually, we’ll have to tell them anyway. Recently, AIPAC [American Israel Public Affairs Committee] has been extremely aggressive. They’re taking the lobbying money but not listening to us, and they’re ready to flip the table. If they flip the table, even America would have a hard time ignoring it.
Anyway, at this point, everyone in the know understands that the relationship between the United States and Israel is heavily influenced by lobbying. That’s why the United States is handing over all that advanced military equipment at bargain prices. However, that’s not the only reason.
The United States needed a countermeasure against Arab countries. Except for Israel, the Middle East was predominantly comprised of Arab countries, and many Arab countries harbored anti-American sentiments, which is still largely the case today.
And recently, it’s gotten worse. It’s understandable, considering they occupied Afghanistan relatively quickly and attempted to turn it into a pro-American country. The shock and horror weren’t just for the countries directly involved in the war. It instilled fear in neighboring countries and potential adversaries, and shock in allies.
The Afghanistan war was a bit extreme, but initially, everything seemed to be progressing well. But, damn it, this caused an unexpected side effect. That side effect was that some countries began to believe that ‘nuclear weapons’ were the only way to guarantee their country’s survival.
This wasn’t just an idea from some anti-American country. Even countries that already possessed nuclear weapons started thinking similarly. Of course, countries that were already considered developed weren’t openly declaring that they could never give up their existing nuclear weapons, but it was highly probable that they had secretly hidden at least one or two.
Of course, this was a fact learned through the CIA. We couldn’t conduct espionage against our closest allies, the Five Eyes [intelligence alliance between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States], so we couldn’t confirm their activities, but in other countries, we were able to uncover clear evidence that they were diligently hiding nuclear weapons somewhere.
Originally, the consequences that would have arisen from the US invasion of Iraq were now manifesting as a result of the actions in Afghanistan. In short, the underlying logic was this: if you lack the confidence to win with conventional weapons, wouldn’t possessing nuclear weapons deter any potential invasion? At least until a future defense system capable of reliably intercepting ICBMs [Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles] is developed.
At least until now, there was no such defense system that could perfectly intercept ICBMs. On the other hand, countries that were developing nuclear weapons were starting to invest more heavily in their programs. History repeats itself, doesn’t it? It was truly a frustrating situation to witness repeatedly.
However, the situation became a bit more ambiguous recently as the EU began developing a more unified and capable military force. They were framing it as a retaliatory measure rather than a form of diplomatic insurance to use if things went wrong. Of course, the situation was a bit different for the UK and France, who were openly possessing nuclear weapons, but even countries that signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons were acting as if it didn’t exist.
Back to the story of Israel, hydraulic fracturing isn’t actually that difficult of a technology to master. But if we tell them about gas fracturing, they’re really going to struggle due to profitability issues. The reason why we’re diligently drilling with gas fracturing now is none other than to prepare for a potential full-scale conflict with Saudi Arabia and drastically lower the unit price of gas fracturing at the same time.
Originally, if you increase production due to demand, the unit price for that item is constantly lowered for mass production. No matter what, it won’t fall below a certain level, but it was more than enough to secure proper profitability in the future.
If we send this technology, it would be ‘trying to help them, but ending up hurting them.’ This is only something that the United States can do because it has prepared sufficiently and secured a substantial budget, and other countries can’t easily follow suit. Doesn’t the saying go that if a crow-tit tries to follow a stork, its legs will be torn? It was exactly like that.
Bush, who had thought this far, reviewed the documents and tapped the desk a few times with his finger. White, who thought he had been summoned, glanced at Bush for a moment, but quickly realized that he hadn’t been called and lowered his head again.
“Chief of Staff. What do you think about this?”
“There’s nothing more to consider, sir. Just give it to them. It’s a technology that any country can acquire with a little research anyway.”
In short, it was a white elephant. Bush completely agreed with this assessment. However, there was one difference. That was the point of view.
“Besides, if we don’t listen to their demands, there will be quite a few problems with our broader strategic plans.”
Originally, it’s not for nothing that Bush is often evaluated as being heavily influenced by AIPAC. While Bush had some areas where he lacked competence, he was never unintelligent. The reason why he was swayed like a reed in the wind was because AIPAC was so powerful. Even Obama, who was considered the least swayed, praised AIPAC and Israel during the election season. That’s how significant the Jewish community’s influence is in the United States.
“So, you’re saying we should just give them the entire technology package?”
“Yes, sir. Is there any reason not to? They’re our allies anyway. We may soon see Israeli oil in our country.”
“Well, I suspect if they drill and use it, they’ll consume it all within Israel.”
This time, Bush’s assessment was accurate. The reserves are so vast that Israel can’t use them all alone, but the profitability issue was a significant factor that diminished the value of those reserves. However, the situation might be different in a few decades. Before oil was properly utilized, it was just black water that burned well in human history. So, if they develop technology to secure profitability, Israel could emerge as a new oil powerhouse.
‘But this is too far off in the future. We won’t be able to do anything about it in the next 20 years or so.’
There are such deposits everywhere in the world. And every country in the world is obsessed with oil and gas. The United States is even more particularly obsessed, but anyway, what this means is that oil drilling technology has been constantly developing since oil had value due to human greed.
So, when I recalled that I was arguing about the profitability of this shale gas even in 2019, unless a genius for drilling technology suddenly appears in Israel, it meant that it would be difficult to have a big impact on Bush’s current Middle East strategy.
“Then let’s do that.”
Bush has been ignoring Israel quite a bit since he became completely integrated with Kim Kap-hwan and took office. There were mountains of problems related to Israel that arose as a result, but for now, he’s broken ground on the first one. It’s truly mind-boggling that it’s only the first step, but anyway, he’s shown sincerity ahead of the election.
‘Come to think of it, when was that?’
I remember that there was a major earthquake in India and the rest of South Asia in 2004, but I don’t remember the exact date. When I saw it on the news, it wasn’t snowing, so I thought it was probably summer, autumn, or early winter, but summer has already passed, so it’s autumn.
‘Geez. I’m pretty sure it was 2004.’
Besides, there’s no guarantee that it wasn’t winter just because it wasn’t snowing. Does it snow heavily in South Asia in winter? Even Kim Gap-hwan didn’t remember all the dates. Besides, his memory is gradually fading due to the passage of time.
I could at least provide relief to India. After all, they’ve been promoted to the position of a solid ally since last time, haven’t they? Even if they’re not quite the Five Eyes, they’re at least to the point where if India is attacked, they’ll send troops from the mainland to counterattack together. And the US military is stationed there too. India has been a market with enormous potential since the 18th century.
“Chief of Staff. About the budget for relief supplies for the post-war reconstruction of the Korean Peninsula…”
“Yes, sir. Not surprisingly, both the Democratic and Republican parties are raising concerns about it because of the budget issue.”
If we include India here, it’ll be a disaster. Thinking so, Bush ran his hand over his face. But there was no reason not to bring it up.
“I think we need to increase it a bit more.”