George Bush’S Great America [EN]: Chapter 325

George W. Bush’s Great America – Episode 324

< Episode 324 >

To describe the Middle East in 2006 in a single word, it was utter chaos.

First, the Kurdish independence movement, the new flashpoint in the Middle East, had stalled in Iran. This was largely because they lacked the confidence to win a protracted war against the entire region. However, the rest of the Middle East was too preoccupied with its own problems to focus on the Kurdish rebels pushed into Iran.

As Bush had feared and predicted, the Kurdish rearmament and push for independence inspired others across the Middle East to seek freedom from oppression and reclaim their religious and ethnic identities.

In Lebanon, witnessing the instability in western Iraq, the government refused to allow Hezbollah into the political process, citing the organization’s terrorist activities as its core principle. Instead of accepting this decision, Hezbollah chose to violently resist, triggering a civil war.

Meanwhile, in Syria, long-simmering discontent was about to explode. Seeing a window of opportunity with diminished foreign influence, various rebel groups rose up. These groups, composed of individuals dissatisfied with the current government, shared the common goal of overthrowing the regime, despite lacking a unified ideology.

In Egypt, sporadic pro-democracy movements had been occurring since the division of Iraq and the establishment of western Iraq. However, these movements had waned after the collapse of western Iraq. Then, realizing that the status quo was unsustainable, protesters gathered in Cairo to reignite their cause. President Mubarak, preemptively alarmed, mobilized the military and police, deploying armored vehicles and tanks, and issued a suppression order, causing the people’s pent-up democratic aspirations to erupt.

The problem was that the soldiers were largely sympathetic to the protesters’ sentiments. Regicide [the act of killing a king] was not uncommon, and even high-ranking generals, sensing that the tide had turned against Mubarak, openly defected from the government and joined the protesters. The protesters transformed into rebels, marking the beginning of a civil war.

Oman, once lauded as the Switzerland of the Middle East and seemingly eternally peaceful, also became embroiled in the turmoil. While not directly engaged in war like other countries, Oman was overwhelmed by refugees exceeding its capacity to manage. The influx of disorderly and illegally entering refugees caused numerous social problems, plunging Sultan and Prime Minister Qaboos bin Said Al Said into deep distress.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was severely impacted economically by the US-Russia-Saudi oil war. Approximately 50% of the country’s export revenue depended on the oil industry. While the remaining 50% came from other sectors, the UAE could not remain unscathed when half of its export business became worthless.

In this precarious state, the UAE strained its resources to revive various industries and restructure its export economy, which had been overly reliant on oil. However, their primary source of income at that time became China.

When China fragmented and the UAE could no longer import cheap Chinese materials, the industrial capabilities of companies that had expanded with government support were decimated. While securing permission from the local warlords [regional military leaders] would have been ideal, they had no intention of negotiating with the UAE.

The warlords, understanding their leverage, leisurely waited for the UAE to come to the negotiating table and acknowledge their position. Conversely, the UAE saw no reason to export while paying the heavy taxes imposed by the warlords.

As a result, crime surged in the UAE, and as its cities lost their appeal as tourist destinations, tourism revenue, a pillar of the national budget, plummeted.

Consequently, the people had to fight their own war for survival. Waking up to armed robbers with automatic rifles on the way to work and returning home to find the front door smashed became commonplace. What else could it be but war?

Kuwait, where the oil business accounted for about 90% of the export structure, followed a similar path. However, unlike the UAE, which struggled before collapsing, Kuwait’s economy sank without much resistance.

Saudi Arabia, which had fought a direct war with the United States and Russia, faced a similar situation. However, its size and accumulated wealth prevented it from deteriorating to the point of administrative paralysis, unpaid soldiers, and rampant street crime.

Returning to the UAE, the government was fortunate that popular discontent did not erupt into revolt. The people recognized that the global situation, rather than the government’s actions, was to blame, a narrative the government actively promoted.

Bahrain and Qatar managed to avoid the worst of the chaos, partly due to their open, peaceful, and small size. Bahrain also benefited from the protection of the US military, while Qatar was frequently visited by one of the three carrier strike groups deployed in the Middle East.

However, Qatar’s economy was entirely dependent on foreign workers, and when they fled due to the chaos in the Middle East, the country panicked. Refugees filled their place, but they were unlikely to contribute meaningfully to the economy.

Bahrain’s situation was similar, but its economic collapse was linked to Saudi Arabia’s troubles.

The most chaotic country in the Middle East was undoubtedly Yemen. The specter of South Yemen resurfaced, and after confirming that the Western world and the Middle East Federation were unable to intervene and that the US military was focused on the Kurdish civil war, the Houthi rebels rose up, declaring that their time had come.

Ironically, the most stable places in the Middle East were Israel and Palestine, where tanks and missiles had been flying until recently. Despite signing a peace agreement, it remained too dangerous for refugees, and summary executions were more common than legal proceedings.

The turbulent situation caused by the Kurds extended beyond the Middle East, affecting a region in the Western world seemingly disconnected from the Middle East since the Iraq War: northeastern Ireland, where separatism had always been present.

While still relatively mild, protests became intertwined with the existing Brexit [British exit from the European Union] movement, and the question of ‘What should we do if Britain withdraws from the EU?’ suddenly gained prominence.

The British people strongly desired to withdraw from the EU, which they saw as ineffective, but the government resisted. However, experts believed that Britain’s withdrawal from the EU was inevitable.

After listening to all the reports that Bush had been postponing due to the situation in China, he said:

“Isn’t it too late to pull out now?”

Bush was extremely relieved that the United States was not directly involved in a war. While they were providing indirect support, the only expenses were for the troops stationed in various locations.

The deployment in the Middle East was mostly temporary, keeping the budget within the expected range. In reality, the costs weren’t excessive, and Congress was questioning the effectiveness of the deployment rather than criticizing the budget.

While the US had taken over the Kurdish issue from the EU, the goal was to minimize the civil war waged by the Kurds. And Iran, to put it bluntly, was a victim of Bush’s plan, or, to put it nicely, a way to undermine a country hostile to the United States.

“Is Turkey, a traditional powerhouse in the Middle East, the only one that’s somewhat stable?”

Turkey wasn’t without problems, but they had consistently addressed them. This accumulation of experience allowed them to avoid a civil war, despite being extremely unstable.

And although Kurdish independence was not achieved, the EU curried favor with Turkey by offering what they hailed as a ‘miraculous concession’ in negotiations, leading to serious discussions about Turkey joining the EU.

‘Britain is considering withdrawing from the EU, while Turkey is joining the EU.’

It was a classic case of one out, one in.

‘This is really exhausting.’

Bush could understand why George W. Bush in the original timeline enjoyed vacations and golf so much.

‘Without hobbies like resting or playing golf, he would have gone crazy. Besides, he trusted his subordinates so much that he genuinely believed everything was going well. He probably praised himself for being a blessed president with so many capable subordinates and then worked hard at playing golf, thinking he deserved a break.’

This was ultimately self-defeating, so it was a fitting self-reproach to regain his focus.

‘Did Kazakhstan give a negative response?’

Since it was just a futile attempt, any answer would have been unsurprising. More importantly, Bush’s attention was drawn to Africa, specifically Sudan and Libya, which were both divided.

“A civil war in Libya.”

The pro-democracy protests in Libya were inspired by the establishment of a democratic government in western Iraq, with the protesters believing that the Western world would support them. This wasn’t entirely wrong. However, western Iraq, intended as a base for democratization, had effectively become independent from the EU.

As a result, when the Western world didn’t respond, Gaddafi’s quick appeasement measures quelled the protests. However, once Gaddafi’s power began to weaken, it became like a house of cards. The protests, which hadn’t been violently suppressed, fostered the idea that ‘if you’re cornered, you can start a protest to get something,’ and when the appeasement measures wore off, the same protests erupted again.

After repeated occurrences, Gaddafi, exhausted, resorted to violent suppression, and Libyan tribes launched counter-protests, demanding Gaddafi’s resignation. Now, the protests had escalated into a civil war.

‘I can provide weapons support to the rebels, but I don’t need to get involved directly.’

Libya had a complex domestic situation with about 140 tribes. Intervening would be political suicide.

‘But Sudan is a country that I have to take responsibility for until the end. I divided it myself, so I have to take responsibility until my term is up.’

The report in Bush’s hand stated that East Sudan and South Sudan were on the verge of war.