If I Fall, You Fall Too
What Prussia had hoped for was that the British Empire, with its naval dominance, would anticipate France’s every move, and that the rapidly growing Russian Empire would provide substantial assistance.
But reality rarely aligns with such perfect scenarios.
With the British Empire prioritizing its own security, Prussia was understandably low on their list of concerns.
Evading the British forces, who were primarily focused on monitoring the Atlantic, proved relatively easy for the French army as they made their way to the Mediterranean.
There, Massena, having rebuilt his forces after the Asian campaign, began pushing north, plunging Prussia into turmoil.
“How many French troops are advancing north?”
“Reports suggest at least five corps, possibly more. The numbers could be around 150,000…”
“150,000? They also deployed troops to the Turkish front. How could they possibly…”
Disbelief, and fear, gripped the Prussian command. The Prussian army, still reeling from Napoleon’s 180,000-strong force in the previous conflict, was reliving its trauma.
While the numbers were smaller than the previous invasion, and figures like Napoleon, Davout, or Jean Lannes were absent, along with the 2nd and 3rd Corps, the French army’s equipment was vastly superior.
Moreover, the French marshals, even without Napoleon, possessed greater experience than before.
Conversely, the Prussian army had not fully recovered its strength. Their guns and artillery lagged at least a generation behind the French.
They might have dared to confront the Holy Roman Empire, but the prospect of facing the French army was daunting. The real question was whether the soldiers would even obey orders to fight the French.
“What about England? What’s their response?”
“They say they’ll dispatch reinforcements as quickly as possible.”
“…’As quickly as possible’? When is that?”
“They didn’t provide a specific date but promised to send elite ground troops.”
“Those bastards can’t be trusted. Russia is more reliable. What did they say?”
King Frederick William III of Prussia vividly remembered England’s betrayal of his father, so much so that his father’s dying words were, “Never trust the English.”
He had entered this war not out of trust in England, but from the belief that missing this opportunity would forever cripple Prussia’s chances of recovery.
“First, inform England that if reinforcements don’t arrive before France crosses our border, we will immediately surrender and withdraw from the war. If they object, they should send reinforcements promptly.”
“Yes, Your Majesty!”
“And tell those Russian bastards the same. If they don’t want us siding with France, they must send reinforcements.”
If they intended to use us solely to contain the Holy Roman Empire and then discard us, they should reconsider. If Sweden is already allied with France, and we join them, can Russia and England still treat the Baltic and North Seas as their personal playgrounds?
Though weak alone, siding with France would at least drag England down with us. Perhaps France might even show us some leniency.
“Your Majesty, there’s another matter to report.”
“At a time when France is already advancing, what else could be so critical?”
“It concerns Poland. Unrest is growing, with widespread refusal to be conscripted, fueled by opposition to war with France.”
“…Those people are still causing trouble. They refuse to assimilate, don’t they? Is there any effective way to handle them?”
Decades had passed since the Holy Roman Empire, Prussia, and Russia partitioned Poland, yet their desire for independence remained strong.
“The Polish people believe this is their best chance for independence. Previously, with Russia allied to France, France didn’t fully support Poland. But the situation has changed.”
“Ah, I see. They believe that if we lose this war, France will grant Poland independence?”
It wasn’t an unreasonable assumption. Remaining passive would achieve nothing, but actively supporting France and voicing their desire for independence could provide both justification and practical advantages.
France would also want to weaken Prussia or Russia, who dared to oppose them, making it a mutually beneficial arrangement.
“But the Holy Roman Empire also occupies Polish territory, correct? Surely France wouldn’t betray its ally to grant independence?”
“Instead of returning territory held by the Holy Roman Empire, they could seize land from us or Russia and give it to them. There are many ways to redistribute the land.”
“I see…”
Now I understand the stakes in this war are higher and more complex than I initially thought. Losing a key industrial region and Poland breaking away would condemn Prussia to permanent second-rate status in Europe.
France was already a headache, but how should we deal with these Polish insurgents? Just as I was growing increasingly worried, a desperate plan formed in Wilhelm III’s mind.
“Make our position clear to Russia as well. Given our shared border, any delay in reinforcements is unacceptable. We will surrender to France at the first sign of failure, and Russia will lose not only the Baltic Sea but also all of Poland.”
We have much to lose, but ultimately, we’re all in the same boat. To avoid a domino effect of collapse, they must support us, whether they like it or not.
“Understood, Your Majesty. If they have any sense, they won’t ignore your warning.”
“Yes. We’re already struggling to contain the Holy Roman Empire.”
This wasn’t an unreasonable demand, but a legitimate request from an ally.
So, England, Russia, defend the border. Please.
※※※
The upper echelons of the Ottoman Empire, who had been profiting from raiding Spanish merchant ships, were thrown into an uproar by the arrival of the French fleet.
Spain’s previous reluctance to confront the Ottomans stemmed from their wariness of the British Empire. Launching a full-scale naval crackdown on the Ottomans risked a backstab from England, who constantly coveted Gibraltar.
This prevented them from freely mobilizing their navy. However, if France prioritized the Ottomans, the situation would change.
Spain would be content simply preventing England from entering the Mediterranean. Indeed, upon the French fleet’s arrival, Spain publicly declared its support for France.
It was a statement couched in diplomatic language, but essentially conveyed, “We thank our French brothers for their decision to punish the evil Ottomans. We remain loyal!”
And, of course, the Ottoman’s current naval power was no match for France. Even when France’s main warships weren’t steam-powered, the Ottomans had suffered unilateral defeats against England and France.
They had no confidence in facing the French fleet, which was now far more formidable.
“How did this happen? I thought France was preoccupied with England and wouldn’t bother with us?”
“That was the initial assessment, but their strategy seems to have shifted.”
“This is no minor miscalculation! We need to ascertain the size of the French force immediately!”
“Based on initial estimates, they don’t appear to be aiming for complete destruction. The fleet consists of approximately 30 ships, both new and old.”
Selim III, the 28th Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, sighed deeply, holding his head in his hands as the reports flooded in.
He had been reluctant to involve the Ottoman Empire in this war from the start. He had instructed his advisors to receive Pitt’s letter and coordinate opinions, but that was due to the strong influence of the Janissaries [elite infantry units that held significant political power].
Selim III, who was committed to modernizing the Ottoman Empire, had no choice but to seek support from either England or France.
Personally, Selim III favored supporting France. Given the Ottoman Empire’s proximity to the Mediterranean, France posed a greater threat than England, which controlled the Atlantic.
However, England’s promise to end the conflict with Russia was an offer he couldn’t refuse. Furthermore, the Janissaries, who opposed Selim III’s reforms, pressured the Sultan under the guise of improving relations with Russia.
Selim III’s reforms were ultimately aimed at rebuilding a powerful empire capable of standing against Russia. But if the conflict with Russia ended, the Sultan’s reforms would lose momentum.
Therefore, the Janissaries pressured Selim III to actively participate in the war. Despite being the nominal emperor, the Sultan couldn’t match the Janissaries’ influence.
Didn’t the former Sultan Osman II face insubordination and humiliation at the hands of the Janissaries when he attempted reforms? Selim III’s situation wasn’t much different.
But…
“Didn’t you assure me that trusting England would guarantee success in this war? You advised me, and now we’re in this mess. Tell me, what should we do?”
“…We must request support from the British army immediately.”
“Support? The main British fleet is in the Atlantic and India. How can they reach us? Entering the Mediterranean would mean fighting the Spanish. Will England risk that? Even if they send troops, our ports will be devastated by then.”
“Th-then, let’s summon the Russian Black Sea Fleet…”
“The Black Sea Fleet lacks the warships to challenge the French, doesn’t it?”
Having fought them repeatedly, the Ottomans knew the Russian navy’s capabilities intimately. Coldly assessing the situation, even the combined Black Sea Fleet couldn’t match France or England.
“You were so eager to join this war. Now, take responsibility and resolve this crisis!”
The Janissaries couldn’t continue arguing against the Sultan’s stern rebuke. They soon returned, promising to do their best, but Selim III knew they could never defeat France.
Alone in the audience chamber, the Sultan stared blankly at the map showing the French army’s estimated route.
It was merely speculation, and he wasn’t particularly interested. He was looking at a larger world map, encompassing Europe and the Ottoman Empire.
“Is this meager territory all that remains of the great empire that once ruled the world…?”
North Africa, West Asia, and Eastern Europe. Where was the empire that spanned three continents? Now, only a weakened remnant remained.
Paltry.
Countries rise and fall, but few monarchs can accept that decline occurs during their reign.
Selim III had no intention of surrendering until the very end. No matter how hopeless the situation seemed, this war involved all of Europe.
Even if we don’t emerge as the ultimate victor, we might still secure a chance to plan for the future if we play our cards right. National power is always relative.
What if Russia, our most threatening neighbor, weakened even further than us? Unlike the panicked Janissaries, Selim III was looking further ahead.
If I Fall, You Fall Too End