< Outbreak of War >
After talking with Tojo, I decided to treat the outbreak of war as a certainty rather than a possibility.
Therefore, it was necessary to plan ahead and prepare for the consequences of a war in Asia.
I returned home immediately and called a meeting with the Prime Minister and representatives from both the ruling and opposition parties.
“But are Japan and Joseon [historical Korean kingdom] really ready to wage war against Qing [the last imperial dynasty of China]?”
That was the most common question after hearing my explanation.
They were making a fuss about going to war, but the real question was whether they were actually capable of it.
“Actually, I thought they needed at least another 10 years of development to be ready, but I didn’t expect them to rush into it so quickly.”
“So, they’re pushing themselves too hard. Isn’t there a good chance they’ll overreach?”
“However, Qing’s current situation is surprisingly chaotic, so I don’t think they’ll necessarily lose. Maybe that’s what they’re counting on by starting a war.”
Ultimately, a fight is relative. Even if one side is weak, they can still win if the other side is weaker.
The Qing Dynasty had failed to properly suppress the Taiping Rebellion [a large-scale revolt against the Qing dynasty] and barely overcame the crisis by relying on European powers, so the situation was deteriorating rapidly.
In particular, after the previous emperor, Xianfeng, died and the young Tongzhi Emperor ascended the throne, Empress Dowager Cixi [a powerful and controversial figure in late Qing China] seized all power and committed abuses, making the situation even worse.
Prince Gong [an influential statesman of the late Qing dynasty] was desperately trying to revive the declining country, but by this point, the Qing Dynasty was practically finished.
Especially with increased interference from European powers compared to the original timeline, it was nearly impossible for Prince Gong to use his abilities, no matter how capable he was.
From the perspective of the European powers, who would they benefit more from having in power: the incompetent Empress Dowager Cixi or the capable Prince Gong?
The Qing Dynasty tried to modernize through the Self-Strengthening Movement [a period of institutional reforms initiated during the late Qing dynasty] under the slogan of “Chinese learning as the base, Western learning for application,” but the greedy European powers saw this only as an opportunity to exploit the Qing Dynasty and eagerly plundered concessions.
The reason why Joseon and Japan were able to modernize relatively easily was because European countries were focused on exploiting the Qing Dynasty.
Of course, they also benefited greatly from being allies of the British Empire.
Wellesley, Disraeli, and Gladstone, who knew the Qing’s circumstances well, eventually agreed that Joseon or Japan had the advantage.
I agreed as well.
It’s not because Joseon or Japan is strong.
I can’t imagine the current Qing winning against anyone.
“When I think about it, even if I were in the leadership of Japan or Joseon, I would think now is the right time to wage war with Qing if they really want to. Even if they build up their strength later, it would be difficult for them to beat Qing if Qing manages to pull itself together and reorganize the country.”
“Well, Qing is trying to adopt Western civilization.”
Although it was only a superficial reform, Qing had recently established the Bureau of Machinery Manufacturing, established a plan to build warships, and was sending students abroad at state expense.
I know that the Self-Strengthening Movement ended in complete failure, so it’s clear how Qing’s modernization will turn out now that it’s being exploited by Europe even more than in the original timeline.
However, that’s just my perspective. How would the leaders of Joseon and Japan know that?
They might have thought that Qing could really become stronger, so they wanted to act before that happened.
“Anyway, the Japanese side said that they would not push things in a direction that would harm the British Empire. So, I think it would be good to discuss how we can use the situation to benefit our national interests if a war actually breaks out.”
“I agree. If the cabinet and the ruling and opposition parties find common ground in advance, we will be able to move more nimbly than other countries when something actually happens.”
Wellesley agreed first, and Disraeli and Gladstone nodded in succession.
“If war breaks out, France and Prussia will definitely start preparing countermeasures as well. There is no disagreement that we must move before they do.”
“Since it’s a matter of national interest, I will try to persuade the Liberal Party members as much as possible. But when do you expect the outbreak of war to be?”
“Well, as early as next year? Or maybe the year after next?”
“Well, that seems like an objective judgment.”
However, as if to mock my careful analysis, a telegram arrived at my office from Hong Kong via India the very next day.
“···What? I think I misheard. Can you say that again?”
“Japan has launched a surprise attack on Qing. War has broken out.”
What is this? This can’t be happening.
I wondered if something was wrong, so I looked at the contents of the telegram, but no matter how many times I looked, the contents written there did not change.
“Surprise attack? Declaration of war?”
“Qing claims there was none.”
“···Wow, they’re stabbing them in the back like this?”
I knew they were capable of surprise attacks without a declaration of war, but I never dreamed they would stab me in the back after making a promise with me.
Wellesley, who happened to be visiting my office and drinking coffee, looked at me with a blank expression and said,
“Isn’t this a violation of the Treaty of Paris?”
“It is a violation.”
“During the Treaty of Paris, Your···no, didn’t His Majesty even sign as a proxy for Japan?”
“I did.”
“Then isn’t this openly insulting His Majesty?”
Seriously, for the Prime Minister of a country to talk about insulting the King of the United Kingdom is a bit much.
It’s too accurate, so it’s hitting a nerve?
“They said they wouldn’t do anything that would harm the British Empire, but their standards must be very different from mine.”
Did they really think that insulting the King of Canada had nothing to do with the prestige of the British Empire?
If that’s really the case, I wonder if they’re confident they can pay the price.
“We need to summon the Japanese ambassador. Right now.”
“Your Majesty, the Japanese ambassador just arrived and is waiting outside.”
“Oh, is that so? Then let’s hear what they have to say. Prime Minister, you can listen here with me.”
“I will.”
Still, seeing that they came and waited before I even called them, it seems they are aware that they caused a problem?
In reality, the Japanese ambassador, who came into the room with a pale face, immediately bowed deeply to me.
“Your Majesty! I am deeply ashamed of this situation! I sincerely apologize!”
“You should be. I personally signed the Treaty of Paris to protect you when you launched a surprise attack on Russia, but I never thought you would repay kindness with betrayal.”
“The fact that it turned out this way! I have no excuse and am ashamed.”
“The fact that it turned out that way? Why, was the weather bad again, so the diplomat was late in getting to Beijing?”
It was a sarcastic remark, asking if they were using the same absurd excuse they made when they launched a surprise attack on Russia, but the ambassador surprisingly did not answer.
I was just joking, but I didn’t think they would actually say something like that again.
The ambassador, hesitating under the suspicious gazes, pulled a document from his pocket and handed it to me with trembling hands.
“Th, this is···the full explanation of the incident.”
“The full explanation?”
I received the paper intending to see the reason for the surprise attack, and I skimmed through the contents translated into English.
“···What is this?”
I scoffed in disbelief.
They’re offering this as an excuse?
When I handed the document to Wellesley, who was curious, he also let out a hollow laugh with the exact same expression as me and shook his head.
What would be the best way to describe this feeling?
Seriously···Japan is unbelievable.
* * *
Just before Japan launched a surprise attack on Qing.
The Japanese army, already fully prepared, was only waiting for the order to deploy.
However, Prime Minister Okubo still couldn’t shake off his hesitation.
Surprise attack···a surprise attack. Is it really okay to do this?
“···Okubo, haven’t you made a decision yet?”
“Saigo, is this really the right thing to do?”
“Isn’t this an operation that even the Emperor and the Speaker of the Upper House have approved?”
Of course, those two are just figureheads, so it’s natural for them to approve.
Of course, I knew why this operation was proposed.
-Qing is weak and consists of numerous tribes, but we cannot ignore the fact that there are many of them. No matter how much our imperial army is a force of one against a hundred, damage will inevitably accumulate.
-The answer is a short-term decisive battle. We must inflict significant damage on the enemy in the early stages and then pressure them with Joseon to force their surrender.
-The answer is only a surprise attack! We must break the enemy’s morale with an initial surprise attack.
The only way to preserve our forces and unilaterally strike the enemy’s forces is a surprise attack.
This is true, but the problem is that there is no time to declare war.
“Didn’t we launch a surprise attack without a declaration of war when we fought the Russians last time? When they raised the issue, we explicitly stated in an international treaty that we must declare war in the future, but violating that······.”
“So, didn’t the military present a solution?”
“Suicide? That’s nonsense not worth listening to. What kind of suicide are you talking about? If you’re going to commit suicide, tell the guy who came up with the plan to do it himself. Then I’ll think about it.”
The strategy presented by the navy was very simple and absurd.
[First, launch a surprise attack on Qing. Sink or destroy the enemy’s warships with a surprise attack and seize the southern seas.
Even if we only do this much, the southern part of Qing, which was once devastated by the Taiping Rebellion, will no longer have the power to stop our landing.
The key is what comes next. Of course, Europe will raise the issue, so the person who launched the surprise attack on Qing will apologize with suicide and settle this accident.]
It was truly an outlandish strategy that could only be suspected of being insane.
“I don’t think suicide is a good idea either.”
“Not a little, but a lot! Are you going to take the person in charge to London and have them commit suicide in Buckingham Palace? Do you think the British royal family and politicians will say, ‘Wow, Japan is a wonderful samurai who knows how to reflect on their mistakes’? Not at all!”
Rather, they would be horrified and say that they should not even form an alliance with such barbaric people and cut off diplomatic relations. I can bet my entire fortune and prime ministership on that.
“If you’re bringing such a crazy strategy as an alternative, it’s better to take a little loss and take a straightforward approach. Just declare war and attack.”
“Wait, wait. I agree with you, and I told the navy that this doesn’t seem right. And the army also presented an alternative, and it seems a little better, so why don’t we try it this way?”
“Haa···Okay, let’s hear it. What does the army want to do?”
“We will declare war. But it will not reach Qing due to an unforeseen accident.”
“Why, are you going to make the excuse that the weather is bad again, so it was late in arriving in Beijing?”
Joking around is fine once, but if it happens twice, it’s the same as advertising to the world that this country is hopeless.
“No. We will actually write a declaration of war and launch a ship. And then sink the ship by running it aground on a reef in a suitable place.”
“···What?”
“Since there is no telegraph line from the home country to Qing, people from the home country have no choice but to go directly. So, if we send a diplomat first and then actually sink the ship, we can at least make excuses, right?”
“To sink a ship with a diplomat on board, what······.”
In fact, there are many islands and reefs on the way from Japan to Qing.
If we sink the ship instead of making nonsense like we did with Russia, there will be some physical evidence, so we can cover it up while closing our eyes and ears.
However, we cannot avoid giving the impression that we are the kind of people who would sink a perfectly good ship just to launch a surprise attack.
“Okubo, the military’s opinion has already been unified, and both the Upper and Lower Houses are agreeing to the surprise attack. You must make a decision.”
“···Haa.”
Is the military in this country really hopeless?
I felt all over my body why Killian told me to suppress the growth of the military.
But the die has already been cast, and the time to cross the Rubicon [a point of no return] is just around the corner.
All the Prime Minister can do at this point is nod.
Destroy the ship with the diplomat on board, and then launch a surprise attack.
Okubo had no choice but to admit that he no longer had the confidence or ability to stop this runaway train.