< The Tinderbox of Europe (2) >
If you observe various regions around the world, you’ll notice certain areas where conflicts erupt with notable frequency.
This isn’t necessarily because the inhabitants are inherently more warlike than others.
Regions plagued by frequent conflict invariably possess underlying factors that instigate fighting.
Historically, the primary driver was food.
Land renowned for its abundant food production was consistently a high-priority target for many nations seeking to occupy it.
Over time, factors like resources and religion became intertwined, diversifying the nature of conflicts. In the 19th century, nationalism emerged as a powder keg potent enough to ignite global conflagration.
If one were to pinpoint a single region where this powder keg was steadily accumulating, transforming into a massive tinderbox, it would undoubtedly be the Balkan Peninsula.
This region, situated at the crossroads of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Southern Europe, and Western Asia, could be considered a melting pot of races and cultures.
Historically, numerous ethnic groups and religions were intricately interwoven and often in conflict, leading to countless disputes.
During the zenith of the Ottoman Empire, local powers often compromised with the Ottomans, seeking a semblance of stability amidst the volatile environment.
However, as the Ottoman Empire’s power waned and nationalism gained traction, the situation gradually grew precarious.
Russia, already at odds with the Ottomans, persistently cast covetous eyes on the region. Following Greece’s independence, this trend solidified as an inevitability.
“Greece has achieved independence, so why not us?”
“How much longer must we Slavs endure the rule of those Ottoman bastards!”
“Arise, Serbians! The time has come to reclaim our identity and religion!”
“Rise up, Bulgaria!”
Russia keenly observed these independence movements unfolding across various regions.
In the past, they might have immediately deployed troops and provoked the Ottomans, but having learned the importance of diplomacy from a previous devastating war, they refrained from repeating the same mistake.
-The Russian Empire, as the protector of the Orthodox Church, has a duty to address the suffering of persecuted believers and vehemently condemns the Ottoman’s religious oppression.
-Nations with distinct histories and cultures have the right to form their own communities. To persecute this is to persecute the entire nation, infringing upon the inherent rights with which people are born.
This declaration of support from Russia, which had unexpectedly embraced the mantle of a nationalist champion, resonated surprisingly well.
Uprisings erupted simultaneously in Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Wallachia, and Moldavia, and independent volunteer armies were formed.
Russia subtly orchestrated an Orthodox allied force under the guise of safeguarding Orthodox believers, emboldening the independence armies in various regions.
This made it clear that even if a full-scale war erupted, Russia would intervene under the pretext of protecting Slavs and Orthodox Christians.
Prussia, upon receiving this news, immediately convened emergency meetings.
“Has everyone heard? It seems those Russian bastards are stirring up trouble again.”
“It’s said that the Russian interior is in disarray due to conflicts between the Emperor and the nobles. Could they be attempting to attack the Ottomans, an easy target, to bolster the Emperor’s authority?”
“That’s not all. Aren’t there talks of Pan-Slavism [a movement to unite all Slavic peoples] going around these days? Russia is undoubtedly trying to exploit this to establish countries with Slavic majorities and position itself as their leader. Wouldn’t that grant them far greater authority than merely boasting about being an empire?”
Bismarck readily grasped Alexander II’s intentions.
If the aim was simply to wage war, defeat the Ottomans, and seize territory as before, they wouldn’t have pursued this course of action.
“So, what should we do?”
“The truth is, we lack a justifiable reason to restrain Russia at this moment. They are skillfully escalating the situation this time. If Russia genuinely confines itself to protecting Orthodox Christians in countries currently seeking independence from being massacred, what grounds do we have to object?”
“Then, we have no choice but to observe for now.”
“Precisely. And let’s monitor Great Britain’s response. No other country is as dedicated to containing Russia.”
Bismarck maintained a calm facade, but inwardly, he was far from composed.
‘Ah, this is madness. What on earth did Alexander II do to provoke this commotion?’
If Russia were merely at war with the Ottomans, he would have dismissed it as their usual antics, but this time it was different.
That damn nationalism.
If Pan-Slavism spreads like wildfire and a wave of nationalism sweeps through the Balkans, wouldn’t it affect us as well?
Already, there’s a growing number of fanatics clamoring for Pan-Germanism [a political ideology advocating the unification of all German-speaking people] and demanding the unification of all of Germany, which could accelerate the process.
For Bismarck, a pragmatist striving to solidify a Lesser Germany centered on Prussia, excluding Austria, this was an unwelcome development.
Didn’t Killian also express extreme caution, warning that excessive nationalism would only sow the seeds of war?
Moderate nationalism can serve as a useful catalyst for uniting Germany, but if it spirals out of control, it can become a poison that undermines diplomacy.
‘It would be refreshing if the Russian bastards were thoroughly defeated by the Ottomans… but there’s no chance of that, is there?’
Since the Ottomans are unlikely to defeat Russia, Russia’s victory should be considered a given, and future actions should be planned accordingly.
“Prime Minister, if several countries gain independence in the Balkans and Russia effectively dominates them, shouldn’t we discuss this with Austria as well?”
“Indeed. Discuss with Austria… wait a moment.”
Speaking of Austria, the outcomes of the London Treaty, which concluded the Danish War, suddenly flashed through his mind.
If the Balkans descend into chaos, Austria will inevitably be directly affected, but Great Britain currently possesses a very effective means of influencing Austria.
Therefore, they may be secretly manipulating events behind the scenes, steering the political landscape in a direction that benefits them.
Moreover, Austria sent a princess to London whom even Killian himself publicly acknowledged as having a brilliant mind.
She might devise another ingenious scheme that benefits both Austria and Great Britain this time as well.
‘Still, she’s just a young child who’s not even fifteen yet, so what more could she do… but we can’t afford to be careless.’
It’s also a perfect opportunity to assess whether that exquisite move from last time was a fluke or if she genuinely possesses that much ability.
“Please urgently instruct the London Embassy to monitor Great Britain’s movements and keep a close watch on the Austrian princess as well.”
“Understood.”
“Good. Then let’s see how they proceed.”
Killian will probably stab Russia in the back in some mysterious way, as he always does, so we can leave that to him.
Rather than Prussia taking the lead and acting, it seemed wiser to follow along and share the spoils when Great Britain or Austria takes the initiative.
After all, for Bismarck, the distant future outweighed immediate gains and losses.
Great Britain is already grooming the next generation to take over even if Killian steps down.
Perhaps we should also start searching for someone soon.
A successor of iron and blood who will continue the current pragmatic diplomatic policy well into the future.
* * *
“Your Majesty! You must not be deceived! Isn’t it universally known that the pretext of serving the Orthodox Church is merely an excuse for invasion! Russia simply seeks to seize the Black Sea under the guise of protecting the Slavic people!”
“I believe it would be more appropriate to discuss such matters with the members of parliament or the cabinet ministers, not with me.”
“If Russia gains control of the Black Sea, it will be able to reach the Mediterranean in an instant! That would place the Suez [Suez Canal] directly within their reach!”
“I ask that you please be patient, as in-depth discussions are also underway in parliament.”
The Ottoman ambassador, who appeared as though he might clutch at my trousers and beg, departed after desperately pleading for assistance.
I’m unsure why this is unfolding immediately after I happily acquired Greenland and Iceland.
It’s not particularly unusual for Russia to clash with the Ottomans, but was it around this time that a large-scale independence movement erupted in the Balkans?
I don’t possess a photographic memory of history, but I’m certain it’s not yet time for that.
At this juncture, shouldn’t we assume that major events are transpiring more rapidly than in the original timeline?
As the world’s development has accelerated, it’s only natural that conflicts and disputes are erupting more quickly, so it’s not particularly surprising.
If I make a single misstep, I might witness a world war break out while I’m still alive.
As soon as the Ottoman ambassador departed, the chamberlain, who had been waiting outside, entered and handed me a small piece of paper.
-Confirmed that investigators have been assigned to Crown Prince Rudolf and Princess Gisela.
“I anticipated as much. They’re already attracting considerable attention.”
“Shall we deploy our agents to apprehend them?”
“No. Even if we apprehend them, no incriminating evidence will surface, so there’s no need to create a tense atmosphere. Don’t we also have a substantial number of spies planted over there?”
Unlike other countries, we privately own even the most reputable detective agencies in London, so we are hardly in a position to criticize other countries.
Everyone engages in such activities with the understanding that it’s acceptable as long as you avoid detection, and even if you are caught, you can simply deny it, so what difference would it make if we alone raised a fuss?
Instead, we should capitalize on this situation.
“Then, shall we discreetly forewarn the Crown Prince and Princess?”
“No, refrain from doing that as well. If they become overly self-conscious, their actions and words may appear unnatural.”
Unlike myself and the children who reside in the palace and are attended by numerous servants, Rudolf and Gisela remain guests.
Therefore, it’s impossible to completely prevent a few gnats from buzzing around them, and informing them of this fact would only cause the young children anxiety.
Unless the intention is to harm them, they are merely gathering information in their own way, so there’s no need to cause them unnecessary alarm.
“By the way, how is Gisela faring these days?”
“She spends time with His Highness Edward three days a week. She also spends a considerable amount of time with Crown Prince Rudolf, and noble ladies are eager to invite her to tea.”
“Edward is visiting that frequently? Is he secretly waiting for Gisela to mature while feigning disinterest?”
It’s said that those who learn to steal late are the most dedicated, so it’s often the case that such children become great lovers. Could my son be one of those cases?
It is a blessing for the imperial family that the Crown Prince and Crown Princess enjoy a harmonious relationship, so I, of course, welcome it wholeheartedly.
Moreover, with signs that the powder keg of the Balkans, which I had foreseen to some extent, is already igniting, the value of those two individuals is reaching new heights day by day.
Those with keen intellects like Bismarck or Wellesley will likely predict that this war between Russia and the Ottomans will further fuel nationalism in the Balkans.
However, they probably won’t foresee that the rise of Pan-Slavism will lead to the prevalence of ideologies such as Greater Serbia [a Serbian nationalist ideology], and these extremists will assassinate royalty and plunge the entire world into a pit of hellfire.
In the first place, at this point, isn’t that more in the realm of curses than inference?
The current era is brimming with optimism about the future due to continuous scientific advancements and explosive economic growth, so there’s even less likelihood of that.
Even the Danish War concluded with a conflict between Denmark and Prussia, with Great Britain’s mediation preventing it from escalating unnecessarily.
In other words, I am the only one who vaguely understands the importance of Austria’s role.
That was the point I was trying to explore.
* * *
“How is it? Are you enjoying your time in London?”
“Yes. Everyone is so kind and treats us well, so every day is enjoyable for both my brother and me.”
That very evening, after the meeting with the Ottoman ambassador,
I was drinking tea with Gisela after dinner and listening to her impressions of London.
“I’m glad you’re adapting much better than expected.”
“It’s all thanks to Fa… Fathe… Father. Thank you so much. I want to do something for you, but I can’t think of any way to repay you other than expressing it in words like this. I’m really sorry.”
“Hahaha, don’t be so shy and call me Father more comfortably. And what did you do wrong to apologize?”
“Still, everyone is so kind to me, but I keep receiving only…”
“The greatest reward you can give is to support Edward well, so don’t feel pressured to do anything for me. Still, I know very well that you won’t feel completely comfortable even if I say this. If you truly wish to repay me, can you grant me one request?”
“Yes! I’ll do anything! Just tell me.”
People like Gisela can’t help but feel indebted in the current situation of living as a one-sided beneficiary, no matter how much you reassure them.
And I had a win-win plan to alleviate her burden while making good use of the current situation.
“Interact with as many people as possible and attend official events frequently.”
“Yes! And what else should I do?”
“That’s all you need to do. There’s nothing more beneficial to our imperial family than demonstrating to everyone that you’re adapting well to London life.”
Gisela didn’t seem to grasp how that would greatly benefit the imperial family, but she nodded diligently with her bright eyes.
“Yes! If that helps Father, I will do my best. But does the instruction to interact with as many people as possible include accepting all the invitations from noble ladies?”
“Of course.”
You may not realize it, but countless eyes from various countries are currently watching you.
So, meet this person and that person as diligently as possible and imprint your name and face on everyone.
This father-in-law will surely elevate the status of his cute daughter-in-law.