Blood is thicker than water, as the saying goes.
Tokugawa Ieyoshi’s biggest worry was his sickly son.
He had fathered so many sons, but they all died young. The only one who survived suffered the aftereffects of a childhood illness, making it impossible to call him bright. How could he not worry?
If his son, Iesada, had been even just an average person, Ieyoshi wouldn’t have been so aggressive.
Therefore, before his son inherited the position, the Shogun felt he needed to restore the firm authority of the early shogunate. That’s why he used every means to pressure the feudal lords (daimyos).
If Ieyoshi had had just one or two more years, his plan might have succeeded.
Satsuma and Choshu, feeling desperate, even formed an alliance to oppose the Shogun, but the Shogun’s power was superior.
However, just one step away from his goal, Tokugawa Ieyoshi finally passed away due to old age, and the inexperienced Tokugawa Iesada inherited his position.
The fact that Iesada was weak and unhealthy was known not only to the Shogunate’s officials but also to the local daimyos.
It was only natural for Satsuma and Choshu, who had been cornered, to see this as an opportunity.
Some voices suggested that everything should be dropped now that Ieyoshi was dead, but those voices were easily ignored.
If it had been a moderate level of conflict, things might have been different, but the Shogunate had genuinely tried to suppress Satsuma and Choshu.
If Iesada reorganized his forces, there was no guarantee that he wouldn’t do the same thing again.
Even if the Shogun didn’t have the courage, there was no guarantee that the Shogun’s aides wouldn’t.
“The fight has already begun.”
“That’s right. We must not stop pressuring until the Shogun expresses his intention to surrender.”
“Tosa and Saga have also agreed to join us. We must use this opportunity to make Tokugawa give up the position of Seii Taishogun [Commander-in-Chief of the Expeditionary Force Against the Barbarians]!”
If it had ended in success, it would have been different, but as it ended in failure, Ieyoshi’s actions ended up being self-destructive, only causing a sense of crisis among the local daimyos.
Even the forces that had not sided with Satsuma and Choshu did not directly support them, but they shifted their support to their side in the debates.
The single voice they all voiced was this.
The Shogun’s power base, the ‘Great Governance’ (大政, Taisei), which the shogunate had been claiming until now.
That is, they demanded that he relinquish the claim that he had been entrusted with the great power of politics by the Emperor and return the Great Governance to the Emperor.
If this happened, Tokugawa would no longer be able to carry out the Shogun’s dictatorship as before, and would simply descend to the position of the head of the daimyos.
Of course, the Shogun’s forces were not cornered yet, but from the Shogunate’s point of view, it was inevitable that the feudal lords, who had been suppressed by the Shogun’s power until recently, would be displeased.
In fact, Iesada, whose personality was mild to the point of being weak, was feeling a slight displeasure at the threats of Satsuma and Choshu.
“Their demands for the return of the Great Governance are growing stronger day by day. Should we follow them?”
“That’s nonsense. It’s the claim of madmen who have been driven into a corner and lost their minds, so please don’t worry too much, Shogun.”
“But…”
“If the Shogun hardens his heart and rebukes them, they will tuck their tails and tremble as if nothing had happened. There is no need to be afraid.”
Iesada’s eyes, which had been shaking violently at the advice of Ii Naosuke, one of his close aides, regained some vitality.
As if he still couldn’t help but feel uneasy, he asked in a hesitant voice.
“But… shouldn’t we consider the possibility of things going wrong…?”
“What do you mean by things going wrong?”
“I mean, they might actually start a war…”
“That can’t be. The weaker the dog, the louder it barks. If the Shogun speaks sternly, everything will be fine, so just trust me.”
What could a weak and indecisive Shogun do?
In the end, he announced an official statement that the return of the Great Governance was absolutely impossible, just as the Shogunate’s vassals had said.
-In the past, when the power of the Imperial Court of the Empire weakened, immoral and rude groups sprang up one after another from all directions. Our ancestor, Tokugawa Ieyasu, ended the continuation of such rebellious changes, and the Shogunate has served as a faithful representative of His Majesty the Emperor for 200 years, and this is still the case today. However, the claims of those who deny and undermine this are an act of insulting the decision of His Majesty the Emperor, who has delegated authority.
Those who continue to repeat this outrageous act, regardless of their position, will be severely punished for insulting His Majesty the Emperor, so everyone should refrain from rash actions and remain in their original positions.
In summary, it was a de facto ultimatum that said, ‘If you talk nonsense, you’ll die, so shut up and stay quiet.’
Putting the Emperor’s name on it was a declaration of will that would not allow any rebuttal, and Satsuma and Choshu were left with only the choice of yielding or rising up.
However, unlike the Shogunate’s hopes, those who knew that a half-wit Shogun had seized power lightly dismissed the Shogunate’s statement.
“The true master of the Empire is His Majesty the Emperor, so how can they arbitrarily wield and abuse that authority just because they have been entrusted with it!”
“Let’s overthrow the brutal Shogunate and establish the banner of reverence for the Emperor!”
Of course, Satsuma and Choshu were not going to start a civil war without any thought.
As the previous Shogun had suspected, they had already imported modern weapons and armed their troops, and other daimyos who felt uneasy about Ieyoshi’s reckless actions were on their side.
In addition, the Shogun was a half-wit, and they had the justification of reorganizing the national system around the Emperor, so why would they hesitate to fight?
However, they did not forget that they had to keep in mind the possibility that the British Empire might intervene if this took the form of war.
“This is not a war or a fight, but a rescue operation to rescue His Majesty the Emperor, who is the center of our Empire. Let’s be sure to announce it that way and raise our troops.”
“I understand. Anyway, the current Shogun is a coward, so if it looks like a real battle is about to break out, he will try to compromise by any means.”
The leader’s disposition and reputation are factors that directly affect the other party’s decision.
If Ieyoshi hadn’t died.
If his successor, Iesada, had only had the ability of his father.
The seeds of civil war, which would have sprouted a dozen years later, absorbed the two nutrients like crazy and grew into a world tree that would cover the entire Japanese archipelago.
Now, no one can stop it.
“We will make the reckless traitors who have undermined the dignity of His Majesty the Emperor pay the price!”
“Do not forgive the Shogunate, which has abused His Majesty the Emperor, using him as a front for all sorts of tyranny and defaming his name!”
The archipelago began to mobilize its troops in a fierce battle over who could sell the Emperor’s name better.
From the perspective of an objective third party, it was something that anyone could call stupid.
However, there is no one in the world who doesn’t know that if you’re screwed whether you win or lose, it’s better to win.
Both sides were fighting fiercely today to become the winning idiot.
* * *
The news of the outbreak of civil war in Japan came around the time I had just returned to Shanghai from Joseon [Korea].
Even after enjoying a grand farewell banquet in Joseon, I heard that something was unusual, but because of the place, I pretended not to know.
There was no point in those who couldn’t even manage their own households paying attention to the affairs of neighboring countries.
“Now, shall we hear about what’s causing such a commotion?”
I sipped my morning coffee and carefully examined the data that had been sent up by informants residing in Japan.
When submitting reports, I told them to keep all possibilities in mind and include various opinions from different perspectives, so there were many interpretations of all kinds.
Some people concluded with pessimistic summaries such as [The fall of the Shogun’s forces is accelerating due to Ieyoshi’s death, and the possibility of the Shogunate’s survival is unclear], while others derived the opposite interpretation, [If they succeed in suppressing the feudal lords, they can overcome the limitations of the dual system of the court and the Shogunate, which is an opportunity for the Shogunate].
Given that both are possible, it seems certain that the current situation in Japan is heading for disaster.
In fact, I also expected that Ieyoshi would cause an accident in some form, whether he would crash and break while pushing forward, beat down the daimyos, or the civil war would be prolonged.
But to think that he would die after only piling up firewood was a variable that even I didn’t expect, but thanks to that, the spark seemed to be burning even more fiercely. This is an opportunity.
“Your Highness. It seems that a battle is about to break out, so shouldn’t we take measures to protect the citizens and merchants of our country in Japan?”
“Of course, we should.”
“First of all, the Shogunate has sent a reply saying that British citizens will not be harmed in the slightest. And the local forces that are opposed to the Shogunate are also claiming that this is not a civil war or a battle, but an operation to rescue their Emperor.”
Gordon, who seemed to have become my adjutant, naturally organized the data and asked for my opinion.
“Your Highness, what… Japan is a region related to Your Highness, so wouldn’t it be right for Your Highness to set the policy?”
“The policy has already been set, so what’s the point of setting it again? Still, it hasn’t been long since everyone returned from Joseon, so let’s tell everyone to take a break. Anyway, the commotion over there doesn’t seem like it will subside in a day or two.”
“Surely Your Highness is not thinking of going there in person? It’s dangerous. Joseon was peaceful, so it was enough to organize an escort, but the atmosphere over there is so harsh that it’s not enough to go to Joseon.”
“When did I say I was going to play? This time, I’m not going as a member of the Joseon royal family, so of course the situation is different. I am now, as an admiral of the British Empire, ordering you to prepare troops.”
The naval forces stationed in Asia, including India, Hong Kong, and Shanghai, have enough power to easily destroy most countries in Asia.
Not to mention Japan, which is divided into two and fighting an internal conflict.
Of course, it would be difficult to fight with the goal of occupying it without the support of the army, but it doesn’t matter because that’s not the purpose of going in the first place.
“Are you planning to intervene in the civil war in Japan? The approval of His Majesty and the Parliament…”
“Of course, I got it.”
There may be a situation in Japan that is close to civil war within a few years, so we may have to use the navy. Therefore, please give us permission.
Wellesley obtained the consent of the parliament in his own name for the report submitted in the name of the Royal Committee, and I obtained the authority to dispatch the navy at any time.
“Your Highness, but they have already stated that this is not a civil war or a war. Wouldn’t it be possible for it to escalate into a diplomatic issue if we formally bring in troops?”
Even Gordon, who had been by my side in Asia, seemed to have developed quite a political insight, unlike a soldier.
Of course, under normal circumstances, they would seize on such a pretext and protest.
Even if a weak country like Japan barks, the British Empire can ignore it, but this is originally a good justification for other European countries to intervene.
However, even if I don’t use the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, I have a way to intervene in the conflict in Japan at any time.
“In fact, the previous Shogun, who was a close friend of mine, asked me for a favor. His son is so weak and unreliable, so if something happens to him, please take care of his son. Am I not a member of the Tokugawa family? So I told him to trust me and leave it to me. But as expected, this happened, so shouldn’t I go?”
“The previous Shogun did. Well, as a father who is worried about his unreliable son, he must have been grasping at straws. I think he would have said that.”
Would he? Of course, it’s a scenario that was created in my head.
However, is there any evidence or witness to prove that the Shogun did not say that?
If there isn’t, then if I say I made a promise, that’s the truth.
Or, if there isn’t a treacherous vassal under the Shogun who has a habit of following the strong, then I can just grill one of those guys and create evidence.
“It doesn’t make sense for a Tokugawa to tolerate those who try to harm the Tokugawa.”
“Then the navy…”
“Think about it. A relative of the British royal family’s consort has formally requested help, and His Majesty and I have accepted it, so from now on, isn’t this the same as our country’s business? So, wouldn’t it be a dereliction of duty if we didn’t intervene?”
With this, an invincible logic was completed that prevented any country in Europe, except for the home country, from intervening.
The British Empire’s consort, Killian Gore Tokugawa Hanover.
A friend and relative who entrusted his son and closed his eyes, and bravely participated to keep the will of the former Shogun!