184. The Autumn Storm (2)
Since World War II, the United States had consistently run a trade deficit. This wasn’t due to a lack of competitiveness in American goods or a shortage of markets to export to.
In the immediate aftermath of the war, the U.S. willingly shouldered the deficit to become the guardian of the Western world through initiatives like the Marshall Plan [a U.S. program providing aid to Western Europe after WWII]. As the Cold War intensified, the trade deficit was accepted for the same reason.
1985 marked the 40th year since the end of World War II, meaning the American people had endured a trade deficit for four decades.
Despite being the world’s leading economic power, the U.S. couldn’t help but feel weary of the chronic trade deficit that had persisted for 40 years.
Key industries were stagnating due to the strong dollar caused by austerity measures, high interest rates dampened consumption, and investments in technological development couldn’t be made aggressively.
Furthermore, military projects like the Star Wars program [Strategic Defense Initiative], which required astronomical budgets, added to the burden the U.S. had to bear.
“Everyone knows that the United States will soon enter into negotiations with Western developed countries.”
The person speaking with Jung Hyun-woo was Chief Presidential Secretary for Civil Affairs, Heo Moon-young.
To reciprocate the President’s successful visit to the United States, he had flown to Boston as soon as summer ended to meet with Jung Hyun-woo.
“This will be a great opportunity for South Korea.”
Heo Moon-young raised his eyebrows at the statement that it would be a great opportunity for South Korea.
“Are you saying that the conflict between the U.S. and Western developed countries will create an opening for us to grow?”
“What the U.S. wants to do is to keep the Western developed countries in check. Since South Korea is not a target of that check, we will be able to take over the markets that the Western developed countries have missed.”
Heo Moon-young nodded at Jung Hyun-woo’s answer.
“Then we need to prepare as well.”
“It would be good to prepare to increase production and investment.”
“Are you saying we should stimulate the economy with aggressive fiscal spending?”
“Yes, that’s right.”
Jung Hyun-woo wasn’t an economist, but he had learned basic economic and management principles while running Victoria Corporation.
“You are a blessing to South Korea.”
“You flatter me.”
“No, we feel reassured because we have you.”
Jung Hyun-woo took out a small envelope from his pocket and handed it over.
“Please use this for the good of the country.”
Heo Moon-young tilted his head.
“Use it for the country? What do you mean?”
During the President’s visit to the U.S., Jung Hyun-woo had already donated a large sum of $10 million, ostensibly for the success of the Asian Games.
“Even at this moment, there are those who are sacrificing their lives for the country in places we don’t know about. I hope they receive sufficient compensation.”
Heo Moon-young let out a soft groan after hearing Jung Hyun-woo’s answer.
“You’re saying to use it for the agents of the National Security Planning Agency [South Korea’s intelligence agency, now the National Intelligence Service] who died in the line of duty overseas.”
The Cold War era.
Overseas intelligence activities were incomparably more dangerous than after the Cold War.
The same was true for the National Security Planning Agency. They were active in third-world regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, confronting the communist bloc.
“Please consider it my small token of appreciation.”
“I understand.”
Instead of maintaining a close relationship with only a part of the Blue House [South Korea’s executive office and official residence of the president], Jung Hyun-woo wanted to maintain a broad and friendly relationship.
“And please take care of the Daewoon Group as well.”
Heo Moon-young sighed briefly.
“Hoo… The Ministry of Construction is pushing Daewoon Group, but…”
If the status of Daewoon Construction rose, only the status of President Jung Min-seok of Daewoon Construction, not his son-in-law Jung Min-young, would increase.
“There’s no need to deliberately interfere with Daewoon Construction’s contract with Qatar.”
Heo Moon-young’s thoughts were the same as Jung Hyun-woo’s.
“I think so too. But if the contract with Qatar is signed, Min-young will have a hard time.”
Jung Hyun-woo said to him.
“It would be enough if the contract signing could be delayed until early next year.”
Heo Moon-young raised his eyebrows.
“Delay the contract signing?”
“The Chairman said he would decide on a successor based on this year’s performance.”
Heo Moon-young nodded at Jung Hyun-woo’s answer.
“Hmm, I see what you mean.”
There was no need to sabotage the contract with Qatar. However, there was a need to interfere so that the contract would not be concluded early.
‘I should be able to do that on my own.’
Soon, Jung Hyun-woo took out a small box.
“This is a gift for you, Chief Secretary Heo.”
Heo Moon-young tilted his head at the unexpected gift.
“I came here to express my gratitude, but receiving a gift…”
Even so, he slightly opened the gift.
‘This is…’
Inside the small box was a gold watch.
‘An item to replace gold bullion.’
Heo Moon-young received treatment above that of a diplomat, so he was exempt from customs inspections and security checks when entering and leaving the country. Therefore, there would be no problem even if he took gold bullion. Nevertheless, Jung Hyun-woo meticulously gifted a watch decorated with gold instead of gold bullion.
“Oh dear, I’m always just receiving.”
Jung Hyun-woo said in a soft voice.
“I think it’s not just giving since I asked you for a favor as well.”
Please take good care of the Daewoon Group.
That was his request.
“I will go back and tell many people.”
“Thank you.”
Since Jung Hyun-woo’s nationality was still South Korean, he couldn’t only focus on Victoria Corporation.
‘Somehow, I’ve become the richest man in South Korea.’
The richest young man with South Korean citizenship.
That was Jung Hyun-woo.
* * *
As September 1985 arrived, strange signals were detected everywhere.
Sarah said with a sandwich in her mouth.
“It looks like something’s about to happen.”
Jung Hyun-woo’s choice was a hamburger, not a sandwich.
“Did you get another call?”
“I got a call from my father yesterday.”
“If it’s a call from Mr. Hilton…”
“He said he heard it from congressmen in the South.”
Congressmen in the South were Republican congressmen, the ruling party.
‘If they say so, I can believe it.’
Jung Hyun-woo put down his hamburger and took her words seriously.
“Actually, I also received a call from a member of the Edinburgh Parliament.”
Sarah asked cautiously.
“How about withdrawing the investment?”
She thought that aggressive investment in turbulent times was bound to involve risks.
“Are you saying we should avoid risks?”
“Charlie is already very rich. Is there a need to take risks?”
As Sarah said, Jung Hyun-woo was one of the TOP 50 richest people in the United States.
Of course, Jung Hyun-woo had no intention of shrinking back as she said.
‘The Plaza Accord [agreement between France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom to depreciate the U.S. dollar] was one of the few economic events I knew about.’
If a securities company employee or someone who majored in economics had returned to the past like him, they would have made a lot of money quarterly or annually.
“Sarah, are you saying that we should just ignore the information related to investment even though we have received it through various routes?”
“We’re not the only ones who have received the information, are we?”
Investment banks on Wall Street, senior officials of the Federal Reserve Board [the central banking system of the United States], senior officials of the White House, and reporters and media officials covering them.
They all must have known about this negotiation.
“But they are in a position where they can’t easily invest.”
“Because they are stakeholders?”
“That’s right.”
Sarah’s thoughts were different from Jung Hyun-woo’s.
“Even if they are stakeholders, indirect investment is possible.”
“Hmm, are you talking about investing through places like hedge funds?”
Sarah nodded and answered.
“That’s right.”
Jung Hyun-woo clicked his tongue inwardly, thinking of Terra.
‘I want to give those guys a taste of their own medicine.’
Terra announced that it had suffered a considerable loss of $20 million due to the short selling of Victoria Corporation. But for Jung Hyun-woo, it was only $20 million. He wanted to inflict a loss on Terra to the point where it would falter.
“Come to think of it, there are still outstanding loans that haven’t been repaid.”
Sarah tilted her head and asked.
“Outstanding loans that haven’t been repaid?”
“I borrowed money from Citibank when I fought with Terra.”
Sarah narrowed her eyes.
“You haven’t paid that back yet? I heard the interest is high.”
The interest rate on Citibank’s loan was 8%.
Even as a joke, it couldn’t be called a low-interest loan.
“Wouldn’t it be okay to pay it back a month or two late?”
“What if things go against Charlie’s expectations?”
“I’ll have to sell the Japanese funds.”
Jung Hyun-woo had not yet redeemed the Japanese funds.
“Are you thinking of investing in Japanese real estate again this time?”
He shook his head at Sarah’s question.
“No.”
“If not real estate, then manufacturing?”
Japan’s manufacturing industry was so strong that it felt like it was devastating the American industry.
“I’m thinking of getting involved in the exchange rate.”
Sarah put down the sandwich she was eating at his words. Then, she raised her voice like a strict older sister.
“No way!”
Jung Hyun-woo had no choice but to scratch his head at her firm words.
“Is it too dangerous?”
Sarah stared at him and answered.
“Currency speculation is something that hedge funds do.”
She thought that currency speculation was an investment that Terra would make.
“But wouldn’t that have the highest return?”
Sarah answered in a soft voice.
“Charlie isn’t that kind of person.”
A young man who makes sincere and upright investments.
That’s what Sarah thought of Jung Hyun-woo.
“Okay. Then I’ll pass on the foreign exchange side.”
Sarah was satisfied with Jung Hyun-woo’s words.
“Yes, you should.”
As the two were finishing lunch.
Luna, Jung Hyun-woo’s secretary, knocked on the door.
Tuk. Tuk.
“What’s going on?”
Luna answered Jung Hyun-woo’s question.
“There’s a call from New York.”
A call during lunch.
They wouldn’t call at this time unless it was urgent.
‘Looks like something happened again.’
He got up and said.
“I’ll go first.”
Sarah nodded and took his words.
“Leave the cleanup to me.”
Jung Hyun-woo quickly returned to his office.
* * *
“This is Charlie Jung.”
The person who called Jung Hyun-woo was John Pierre. He had become close to Jung Hyun-woo through the short selling incident.
“This is John Pierre. I’m calling you because there’s an urgent matter.”
Jung Hyun-woo wanted to get straight to the point.
“What is it?”
“I have obtained information that the finance ministers of France, England, Germany, and Japan are coming to New York.”
France, England, Germany, Japan.
These four countries, along with the United States, were the countries that signed the Plaza Accord.
And the Plaza Hotel, where they signed the Plaza Accord, was located in New York, USA.
‘It’s finally starting.’
Jung Hyun-woo asked in a firm voice.
“Did you just get this information?”
“That’s right.”
John Pierre sensed that this was no ordinary matter.
“What do you think, Mr. Pierre?”
“I think something big is about to happen.”
Saying that something big was about to happen was something anyone could say. That wasn’t the answer Jung Hyun-woo wanted. He had no choice but to correct the question.
“How should we deal with this?”
“Wouldn’t it be better to withdraw the investment for now?”
John Pierre thought that Jung Hyun-woo had too much Japanese investment laid out.
‘Just JP Morgan alone amounts to $3 billion.’
Including the money in Bank of America, Jung Hyun-woo’s Japanese investment amounted to nearly $5 billion.
“That’s the same answer as Sarah.”
“Sarah is…”
“Oh, I made a mistake. Miss Hilton also gave me the same advice a little while ago.”
John Pierre knew Sarah because he had worked with her before.
“Ah, so the Hilton family also had news.”
Jung Hyun-woo said in a dry voice.
“It wasn’t as clear as Mr. Pierre’s news.”
“Something is about to happen. Was it something like that?”
“That’s right.”
John Pierre lowered his voice and said.
“Mr. Jung, this could greatly shake the world economy. In times like these, it’s good to secure some cash.”
“When you say secure cash, what level are you talking about?”
“Wouldn’t it be better to cash out about 30% of the investment?”
John Pierre advised that they should have $1 billion to $1.5 billion in cash.
Of course, Jung Hyun-woo had no intention of doing that. He had given up on currency speculation because of Sarah’s scolding, but he had no intention of stopping investing in Japan.
‘Wasn’t it a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity?’
He cleared his throat and said.
“Hmm, hmm. Mr. Pierre, if you were to invest without cashing out, what would you do?”
At that moment, a furrow appeared on John Pierre’s brow.
‘Invest instead of cashing out? I don’t know what Charlie Jung is thinking.’
He answered his client’s question with the analytical skills of a fund manager.
“This negotiation will be for the improvement of the U.S. trade balance. The main contents of the negotiation will probably be the abolition of protectionist trade and tariff negotiations.”
Even key financiers like John Pierre couldn’t pinpoint the exact details of the Plaza Accord.
‘The Plaza Accord, not tariffs or protectionist trade, is an agreement on exchange rate adjustments.’
Instead of denying John Pierre’s words, Jung Hyun-woo went a little deeper.
“Then should we invest in American industries?”
John Pierre thought for a moment and then answered.
“Not all industries will have the same effect. Wouldn’t it be better to invest in industries that are favorable to exports?”
As of 1985, the industrial competitiveness of the United States was lagging behind not only Japan and Germany, but also France.
‘Exports…’
Jung Hyun-woo asked one last question.
“Please tell me one stock that Mr. Pierre recommends.”
John Pierre had been thinking of one company since the second question.
“Archer Daniels Midland would be good.”
Archer Daniels Midland was the largest grain exporter in the United States and a company with a long history, founded in 1902.
“I see.”
John Pierre asked Jung Hyun-woo.
“Shall we buy Archer Daniels Midland with the money from selling the fund?”
Jung Hyun-woo shook his head.
“No.”
“Then what shall we do?”
“How much cash is left over from the last short selling investment?”
John Pierre answered.
“About $80 million.”
His cash, which had amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars, had all been used to purchase Victoria Corporation stock.
“Leave only $10 million and invest all the rest in Japanese companies, especially banks.”
John Pierre was shocked to hear Jung Hyun-woo’s order.
‘Betting on Japanese banks in this situation?’
He couldn’t think of anything other than that he was crazy.