279. The Big Short (5)
The Big Short.
A movie based on the true story of the subprime mortgage crisis and those who predicted and profited from it.
The most prominent figure was undoubtedly Michael Burry. In the film, Burry identifies the flaws in American real estate bonds and gathers investors to bet against them.
However, the collapse he anticipated didn’t happen easily, and investors gradually abandoned him or demanded he change his strategy.
During this process, Burry felt immense pressure and stress, symbolized in the movie by his frantic drumming. The film suggests he coped with the stress by drumming intensely. The actual period of pressure lasted over a year, much longer than depicted in the movie.
Jung Hyun-woo felt a similar pressure to Burry.
‘The Japanese bubble will burst.’
He understood the impending collapse even more clearly than Burry. However, the investors who believed in him and invested didn’t necessarily share his conviction.
Creak.
Sarah opened the bedroom door and entered.
“Charlie, are you okay?”
Jung Hyun-woo nodded.
“I’m okay.”
“You have such dark circles under your eyes.”
“It’s because I haven’t been sleeping well.”
Sarah looked worried.
“Charlie, don’t worry so much. Everything is going to be alright.”
In the fall of 1988, Victoria Fund accepted investments from both Japanese and American sources, and the fund’s operating capital quickly exceeded $200 billion.
This included significant backing from Lyla Marin at Bank of America and Henri Arnault at JP Morgan.
Since both companies held shares in Victoria Corporation, they were heavily invested in the success of Victoria Fund.
The problem was that these large investments increased their influence.
As a result, Jung Hyun-woo had to hold weekly phone meetings with representatives from both companies.
“Is everything really going well?”
Sarah thought his voice sounded more strained than usual.
“Are you doubting it?”
Jung Hyun-woo replied.
“I’m not a god.”
His judgment could be wrong.
The Japanese economy might be more resilient, and the yen could continue to appreciate.
‘The yen and the Japanese economy will eventually fall, but it might not be when I expect.’
What if Japan’s economic boom continued for another three or four years?
Jung Hyun-woo and Victoria Fund would face criticism for missing out on substantial profits due to an early withdrawal.
“I believe in you, Charlie.”
Sarah always believed in him. She was his strongest supporter and his rock.
“Sarah.”
As Jung Hyun-woo lowered his head, she stepped closer and hugged him.
“Charlie will do great.”
Jung Hyun-woo sighed deeply, comforted by her warmth.
‘She’s given me everything, but what have I given her?’
It wasn’t that he’d given her nothing. Sarah Hilton, who had been an undergraduate at Boston University, had become the COO of one of the top companies in the United States and a world-renowned figure because of him. Nevertheless, he felt something was lacking.
“It’s okay. It’s okay.”
Sarah patted him on the back, comforting him.
“Sarah, aren’t you treating me a bit like a child?”
At his question, Sarah slightly loosened her embrace and replied.
“Charlie isn’t a child anymore.”
Jung Hyun-woo stared intently at her face.
“If I’m not a child, then what am I?”
Sarah blushed.
“A younger brother?”
“What if I don’t want to be a younger brother?”
“Charlie?”
Jung Hyun-woo took her hands. He drew her close, their bodies almost touching. Then, he leaned in and kissed her.
Sarah gently accepted his kiss, not pulling away.
* * *
Victoria Corporation, Conference Room 2.
There were still about twenty minutes until the meeting started.
Today’s meeting was led by Robert and attended by the team leaders and key members of Development Teams 2, 3, and 4.
“Kay, how have you been?”
Kay Robinson, the head of Development Team 3, sighed heavily at Robert’s greeting.
“How can I be doing well? I’m dying from endless overtime.”
Robert paused, surprised, and raised his voice.
“Overtime? I didn’t think the service launch schedule was that tight.”
“Ah, I’m taking vacation starting on the 21st.”
Taking a vacation before Christmas meant that all the work scheduled for the end of the year had to be completed beforehand.
“From the 21st? Are you going on a long vacation?”
“My wife wants to go to the Maldives.”
Robert shook his head.
“Oh, my, my, why go all the way to the Maldives instead of Miami or Hawaii?”
The Maldives were quite far from Boston.
“Women say that going to a warm place in winter is a dream. What about you, Robert?”
“My family is planning to attend a small party on Christmas.”
“A party?”
“Charlie and Sarah’s party.”
Kay Robinson shook his head as if disappointed.
“If it’s Charlie and Sarah’s party, I’ll pass. If I go, they’ll just talk about work again. Those two are always like that. They’re completely workaholics.”
Robert smiled and said.
“It might be different this year.”
“Different? Do you mean they’ve piled up a lot of gifts in the party room?”
“Haven’t you noticed a change in the atmosphere between the two?”
Kay Robinson scratched his head at Robert’s question.
“Um… Wasn’t the atmosphere between Charlie and Sarah always good?”
“It was good, but they didn’t hold hands.”
Kay Robinson calmly replied after hearing his answer.
“Hey, Robert. That’s just a private relationship becoming more public.”
All Victoria Corporation employees assumed that Jung Hyun-woo and Sarah were dating.
However, Robert knew the truth. The two had met when Jung Hyun-woo was just a boy, and their relationship was more complex than a simple romance.
“It’s not like that.”
“It’s not like that?”
“Charlie and Sarah have finally started dating.”
Robert said excitedly, but Kay Robinson remained indifferent.
“You sound like an old man. They’ve been living together for years.”
Robert frowned at Kay Robinson’s lack of enthusiasm.
“Kay, I can’t get through to you.”
“Robert, I’m not the only one. Everyone will react the same way.”
“Really?”
Kay Robinson’s answer was as short as Robert’s question.
“Yes.”
Robert spoke as if a major event had occurred, but Victoria Corporation employees viewed Jung Hyun-woo and Sarah’s relationship as naturally as the changing seasons.
“You’re no fun.”
Just then,
Creak.
John River opened the door and entered.
“John, what’s going on?”
John River answered his question, sounding slightly excited.
“Robert! Charlie and Sarah were holding hands and walking!”
Robert’s enthusiasm, which had waned, was reignited by his answer.
“Oh! You saw it too?”
“So, finally, the two of them…”
“It seems like they’ve started dating.”
John River tilted his head after hearing his words.
“Robert, dating? Weren’t they going to get married eventually?”
Unlike Robert or other employees, he was already looking far ahead.
“John, marriage is…”
“I was expecting Charlie to send out wedding invitations this Christmas.”
Robert sighed deeply at his words.
“Haa… You’re moving too fast.”
He predicted it would take at least a year for the two to get married.
‘They were really close, but dating is a different story.’
While Victoria Corporation employees were focused on Jung Hyun-woo and Sarah’s relationship, the two of them were grappling with other concerns.
Victoria Corporation, President’s Office.
Jung Hyun-woo and Sarah were sitting face to face.
“What should we do?”
“We should talk to them first.”
“Instead of calling, should we go to San Francisco?”
“Wouldn’t that be better?”
The person causing them concern was Lyla Marin of Bank of America.
Lyla Marin was a strong ally of Victoria Corporation, but her opinions differed from theirs regarding the 1989 investment plan.
“Christmas is approaching, so we need to set a schedule quickly.”
“That would be good.”
Jung Hyun-woo pressed the intercom and instructed Luna to contact Bank of America to schedule a meeting with Lyla Marin.
Beep.
As he released the intercom button, silence returned.
“There’s also JP Morgan.”
Henri Arnault of JP Morgan wasn’t as forceful as Lyla Marin, but he had also expressed disagreement with the 1989 investment strategy.
“Wouldn’t it be better to explain in person?”
“Should I go with you?”
“No. I’ll go to New York alone.”
Sarah slightly pouted her lips and said.
“Charlie hasn’t changed at all.”
“Yes?”
“Your tone is the same.”
Jung Hyun-woo smiled awkwardly.
“It’s a business meeting.”
“It’s just the two of us.”
Sarah wished he could relax and be more affectionate, even in a professional setting. However, Jung Hyun-woo found it difficult to express affection at the company, even at home or on the way home from work.
‘I’m definitely not cut out for dating.’
She was the person who understood Jung Hyun-woo best in the world.
“Should I call you ‘dear’?”
“There’s no need to change the title. Just speak comfortably.”
“Um… I’ll go to New York. Like this?”
Sarah nodded enthusiastically.
“That’s right.”
She loved even Jung Hyun-woo’s hesitant demeanor.
“Okay. Then I’ll go to New York alone.”
“How many days will you be gone?”
“Two days?”
“One night and two days?”
“I, I think that’ll be enough.”
Sarah finally burst into laughter when she saw him hesitating with every answer.
“Hahaha, Charlie is so funny.”
Jung Hyun-woo asked, his face reddening.
“Am I that awkward?”
“If it’s awkward, it’s okay to talk like before.”
“Okay. Then I’ll speak like before.”
Jung Hyun-woo slightly lowered his head as she stared intently at his face.
“Aren’t you teasing me too much?”
“Because Charlie is cute.”
“Cute?”
“I wouldn’t have accepted you if you weren’t cute.”
Jung Hyun-woo realized that the qualities he thought he possessed and the qualities that attracted Sarah were different.
‘So it’s not because I’m a reliable man.’
He was the CEO of the world’s second-largest and America’s largest company, but such titles meant nothing to Sarah.
* * *
New York, Wall Street.
Jeremy Spin, COO of Victoria Fund, sighed softly at Jung Hyun-woo’s question.
“Hmm, there’s definitely that sentiment on Wall Street right now.”
Jung Hyun-woo’s question was whether Japanese investment on Wall Street was becoming overheated.
“Stock prices have recovered, but I don’t think we can be completely confident.”
Victoria Corporation’s stock price was $55, and its market capitalization was $110 billion.
This was the second-largest in the world after Japan’s NTT and the largest in the United States.
The problem was that the gap with NTT had widened even further.
NTT’s market capitalization was $300 billion, three times that of Victoria Corporation.
“Charlie. The Japanese funding is also proceeding successfully, so I don’t think you need to worry too much.”
Jeremy Spin tried to steer the conversation in a way that would ease Jung Hyun-woo’s concerns.
“We aren’t worried, but it seems that the investors are.”
“Investors?”
“Bank of America and JP Morgan are putting pressure on us.”
Jeremy Spin knew that the involvement of these two companies was different from other investors.
‘These are companies we can’t ignore.’
The two companies had invested a combined $10 billion.
“They seem to view our withdrawal negatively.”
Jung Hyun-woo nodded and said.
“It seems they think it’s not the right time to withdraw from Japan yet.”
Jeremy Spin asked him.
“What do you think, Charlie? Will you change your mind based on their opinion?”
Jung Hyun-woo slightly stiffened his neck and replied.
“I won’t change the plan.”
He was unwavering because he was confident in his assessment of the future.
“Then we have no choice but to persuade the two banks.”
Jung Hyun-woo slightly raised his voice.
“Jeremy, isn’t there any argument that could persuade them?”
The reason he visited Victoria Fund before JP Morgan was to find any possible leverage.
“Hmm, an argument to persuade the two banks…”
Jeremy Spin wasn’t all-knowing.
“It doesn’t seem like there is one.”
“Looking at objective indicators, the Japanese economy is solid.”
The Japanese economy is solid.
Jung Hyun-woo was slightly shocked by this statement.
“Don’t tell me you feel that way about real estate too?”
Japanese real estate prices had risen so dramatically that selling only the Imperial Palace [the primary residence of the Emperor of Japan] could buy New York or California.
“Japanese real estate is definitely overvalued. But isn’t it natural for real estate prices to be high in a country with a high population density like Japan?”
Before investing in Japanese real estate, American investors had looked at the rise in real estate prices in Hong Kong and Singapore. They argued that Japanese real estate shouldn’t be viewed in the same way as in the United States.
– It is natural for real estate prices to be high in densely populated Northeast Asia.
– We cannot view a country with a large land area like the United States and a country with a shortage of land like Japan in the same way.
– Considering the population density, Japanese real estate could be said to be undervalued.
Jung Hyun-woo realized that even Jeremy Spin had been swept up by the prevailing sentiment on Wall Street.
‘I can’t believe even Jeremy has been influenced like this.’
He sighed briefly and said.
“Hoo… Jeremy, this won’t work. I think we need to take strong measures.”
Jeremy Spin raised his eyebrows at his words about taking strong measures.
“Charlie, you’re not going to withdraw all the money at once, are you?”
He worried that a sudden change in the portfolio could destabilize the fund.
‘Most of Victoria Fund’s operating funds belong to Charlie and Sarah, but we can’t ignore the newly invested funds either.’
If all the newly funded funds were withdrawn, Victoria Fund would survive, but Victoria Corporation’s stock price would inevitably decline again.
‘It’s dangerous.’
Jung Hyun-woo answered his question.
“I won’t withdraw the money all at once.”
Jeremy Spin sighed in relief at his answer.
“Hoo… That’s a relief.”
However, it wasn’t time to relax yet.
“Jeremy, I will short Japanese construction companies using the money from selling real estate and stocks.”
Jeremy Spin jumped up from his seat at Jung Hyun-woo’s words.
“Short Japanese construction companies?”
Jung Hyun-woo looked at him and nodded.
“That’s right.”
Jeremy Spin shouted, a vein throbbing in his neck.
“Charlie! No!”
He sincerely believed that shorting was a dangerous choice.
“Why not?”
“This is a losing battle!”
Jung Hyun-woo received his outburst with a calm voice.
“So, in the end, Jeremy also thinks my choice is wrong.”
Jeremy Spin couldn’t help but pause at his words.
“Th, that is…”
Jung Hyun-woo continued his interrupted thought.
“Withdrawing from Japan is just giving up on greater profits, but shorting Japan will result in huge losses. Isn’t that what Jeremy is thinking?”
Jeremy Spin groaned softly.
“Um…”
He couldn’t deny Jung Hyun-woo’s assessment. That was exactly what he was thinking.
“Charlie, giving up profits and betting on a losing position are different things.”
Jung Hyun-woo had no intention of backing down from his conviction.
“Just two years ago, Wall Street investors were talking about Japan’s bubble. But now that stock prices have risen much higher than then, people aren’t talking about Japan’s bubble.”
Objectively, the Japanese economic situation had deteriorated more than two years ago.
However, instead of discussing the bubble in the Japanese economy, people were talking about investing in Japan.
“Um… That’s…”
Jeremy Spin couldn’t answer properly.
Jung Hyun-woo stiffened his neck and said.
“It’s because everyone made money in Japan.”
The profits made in Japan were clouding the judgment of Wall Street investors.