< Episode 268 >
“Russia increased production again?”
Amidst the busyness of the White House, while eating a tuna sandwich on rye bread, he frowned upon hearing the unbelievable news. The already unappetizing health food became even less appealing.
“Yes, that’s correct. It seems they’re really intent on ruining Saudi Arabia and our shale industry.”
Putin’s gaze from the opening ceremony of the Athens Olympics last year was still vivid in his mind. Truly a former KGB agent. He never showed or revealed anything on his face, but in their conversations, his attitude made it clear he wanted to eliminate Bush right then and there.
Recalling that image, Bush was certain that this production increase was aimed at both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia simultaneously.
“Maybe it’s both.”
What a foolish game of chicken this was. Of course, it wasn’t that he didn’t understand the attitude. In fact, if Bush were in that position, he would have started with a fistfight instead of diplomacy or anything else.
Still, thanks to Bush’s nature, he wouldn’t actually resort to a fistfight like the reckless Gip Gap-hwan when truly excited, but he certainly understood that attitude and the current declaration of war.
However, non-oil-producing countries were thrilled. But the funny thing was, even though the oil prices were plummeting on the charts, gas stations, where the public could directly feel the low prices, hardly moved.
Of course, this wasn’t just a problem for gas station operators. The reason gas stations couldn’t lower prices beyond a certain point was the oil tax. Since the oil tax, which had to be paid to the government, was attached, companies naturally couldn’t lower prices below a certain level.
“What do you think we should do to address this situation?”
“Are you talking about additional measures?”
Bush asked, but the Chief of Staff had nothing else to say. That was because this was the best they could do right now. It was enough to provide water to sustain the shale industry, which could be said to be the future of the United States, so it wouldn’t wither away.
Taking further additional measures here could only stir up trouble. Still, since it was an order, shouldn’t he scrape together even the smallest tricks to present?
“How about negotiating with Saudi Arabia? I think it’s a bit early, but if we continue like this, the subsidies might run out first.”
In particular, Saudi Arabia, which completely relied on its national treasury for oil, had to scream because Bush was injecting subsidies and increasing production, saying they would all die together. The attacking side was clearly Saudi Arabia, but at some point, it had become a slugfest.
From the start, Saudi Arabia and the United States had different weights when it came to oil. The United States was always the underdog, and Saudi Arabia was the strongman. However, the problem this time was that the United States went into the ring with a gun and full plate armor.
“Saudi Arabia. Fundamentally, it’s their doing.”
Unlike ordinary wars, he wouldn’t be able to extract anything from them even if he won.
‘At best, it would be the normalization of oil prices.’
He didn’t know if he should call it extracting, but anyway, wasn’t that what Bush, what the advancing United States, wanted? However, in this case, it would be more accurate to call it a win-win situation. If the United States and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement, Russia would naturally join forces to normalize oil prices as well.
“But we can’t be the first to extend a hand, can we?”
“Then just make them extend it. Why are you worrying about something like this? This isn’t like you at all.”
Indeed, it was. Upon hearing those words, Bush looked as if he had been struck. It was a thought that was like him, but he hadn’t been able to act on it. He was worried that his Chief of Staff might have become like him, just like the saying ‘go to Gangnam if your friend goes’ [a Korean saying meaning to follow trends or be influenced by peers].
Think about it. In order for a car to move, it basically consists of a steering wheel, accelerator, brake, and clutch. The clutch pedal may disappear with the development of automation. Anyway, the point is direction, acceleration, stop, and gear change.
Bush is entirely responsible for direction and acceleration. In the meantime, it was Bush’s role to turn the direction of the giant monster truck called the United States, and it was also Bush’s role to accelerate towards an unclear answer. Accelerating or decelerating this is a gear change. This is the role of Congress. When the President gives directions, acceleration and deceleration are determined according to their beliefs and political intentions. And in the meantime, they have been accelerating quite a bit.
Then the brake. In other words, braking was the Chief of Staff’s job. Congress can slow Bush down, but it can’t stop him. The only one who can stop Bush is the Chief of Staff.
This was partly because Bush trusted his Chief of Staff more than necessary, but conversely, it also meant that he trusted the Chief of Staff’s words. It wasn’t just repeating ‘Yes, of course. Yes, yes’ like a Tsar’s second-in-command puppet, but rather referring to the reliability of the reports that came up.
Anyway, if Bush seemed to be going too far, he could stop Bush. He gave him the authority and gave him the rights. But since the authority and rights he gave were only within Bush’s own mind, the Chief of Staff who actually had them didn’t even know they existed.
But if the brakes fail in a car, isn’t the end too obvious? Since he was already on track, Bush himself decided to be as careful as possible. It’s just that now he has to operate everything except for changing gears, so he felt somewhat complicated.
Anyway, what the Chief of Staff was saying was very simple.
“Does that mean we should increase production even more?”
If he just makes up his mind, he can get rained on a little, but if a heavy monsoon comes, he will eventually avoid it. Even Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, will have no choice but to extend a hand of reconciliation if the situation becomes like this and it becomes prolonged.
It’s just that it takes a lot of effort and effort to bring down that monsoon.
“Why not? Rather than slowly dying, wouldn’t it be better to end it early, even if it’s a bit unreasonable, and seek a better future?”
That wasn’t entirely wrong. If you leave out the fact that Saudi Arabia might hold a grudge and drag it out to the death. Where is the guarantee that they will be intimidated and surrender if you hit them a little? I’d rather have a real war.
Since they were the epitome of a Tang Dynasty army that couldn’t even handle the rebels, there was a high probability that Afghanistan would happen if a war broke out.
‘What’s the point of spending the third-highest defense budget in the world? The training level is below North Korea.’
When I thought about it, North Korea has now been absorbed into South Korea and disappeared, so I thought I should change the standard from below North Korea to below Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia thought that the military could be solved by just bringing money. There are plenty of people in Saudi Arabia who know that’s not the case, but they have no will or intention to fix it, so it has no choice but to stay that way.
“Hmm.”
So, if you ask whether Bush, who likes to go wild, actively agrees with the plan put forward by the Chief of Staff, that’s not the case either. Is there any need to overkill at the point where the end is visible? The end of overkill is MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction).
In short, they could come out stubbornly saying they would all die together.
“Is there any need to step into such a dangerous gamble?”
“If you don’t feel like it, that’s fine. I’m just giving advice.”
When Bush came out lukewarm, the Chief of Staff took a step back. Even though his tendency was a bit extreme, his foundation was to protect the President’s side and silently assist him.
‘But what he’s saying makes sense.’
If we end this oil price war in advance, the United States will become the most successful oil-producing country in the world in name and reality. In the original history, this became a respirator that saved the dying United States due to the Great Depression of 2008, but the already flying United States was like adding a jet engine.
‘Saudi Arabia, which started this, is no different, and Russia, which just started, is no different. They are overdoing it more than we are.’
In international relations, yesterday’s son of a bitch can become today’s puppy or hunting dog if interests align. Especially in special cases like this.
‘Certainly. If you use the budget to improve profitability for defense, you’ll be breaking even. It’s oil anyway, so you don’t have to hang around Congress, and they’ll come up with a reasonable compromise at an appropriate level.’
But that’s not enough. What Bush wanted was the United States leading the 21st century. In the current state, there was a feeling that it was tight rather than having 余裕 [yoyuu – Japanese for leeway or margin]. If it goes beyond this, it will pass lukewarmly.
‘There’s also the defense budget issue.’
He persuaded Congress to increase the defense budget. That alone was enough to buy the hearts of the military generals. Not all soldiers respected Bush, but Bush’s approval rating was decent due to various performances such as the F-22 incident.
He couldn’t touch the factional problems within the military, but he was ready to completely destroy them if he had the chance. And it seemed that opportunity would come soon.
“Let’s have them bring up the negotiations. We’re on a peace route with the Israel-Palestine issue. It’s not that awkward.”
This was decisive.
It seemed like they wouldn’t even bring up the ‘h’ of negotiations, and even if they asked to negotiate and made a place, the negotiations wouldn’t go well. Russia and Saudi Arabia would be friendly to each other, ‘Oh, we have a lot of oil in our land, so we’re trying to clear some inventory. Oh, it’s really a lot! We can extract more! Oh, come in! Double production!’ They would only threaten each other by decorating the contents with roundabout diplomatic rhetoric, and then they would scream inwardly and only decide to increase production and end it. There’s no way they can just pass by like this.
“Where should we hold the negotiations?”
That was the problem. He roughly estimated where it would be without any complaints, but there was only one answer.
“Germany.”
The reason he didn’t say France was because the incident that happened in France in the past flashed through his mind. Fortunately, the meeting ended without any problems, airport security was strengthened, and the police force was doubled, but how easily can prejudice disappear?
France’s pride, which had been smeared on its face and rubbed with ashes from the furnace, did not leave the Middle East alone, but from the beginning, the terrorists’ hideouts and habitats had long moved to Southeast Asia.
Thanks to the fact that even the organizations remaining in the Middle East only left their roots and all the main bodies were concentrated in East Iraq, France’s ox knife ended up catching innocent chickens [an idiom referring to punishing the innocent].
“Germany would be good. If they object, we can look for another place. For example, Israel or Palestine, which have entered a lull.”
However, Bush’s worries fortunately ended in vain and there was no objection. The United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia finally crossed the threshold of the negotiating table prepared in Germany with their own complex circumstances.