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Although many words were exchanged upon entering the negotiation, Bush mentally skipped over them all. Everything coming from Russian President Putin and Saudi King and Prime Minister Abdullah was nothing but empty formalities.
These were a kind of probing, but they were too clichéd to accept and counter. Of course, Bush knew that this process was absolutely necessary in diplomacy, but knowing and understanding are different things, and even understanding doesn’t guarantee putting it into practice.
Unlike the indifferent Bush, Putin and Abdullah’s expressions were quite a sight. Both maintained solemn expressions. However, the shadows on their faces were a common trait among all three leaders.
‘If I were to find other commonalities, well, they all look dead tired?’
King, Tsar, and President were all exhausted. The fact that the world’s top three military powers were all in this state made Bush want to laugh. Dictators, kings, and presidents were all the same in the face of worry.
This negotiation was private. The reason for keeping it private was the anticipation that this negotiation wasn’t something they wanted to show to the outside world. Bush, who had been silent, opened his mouth, and that uneasy expectation soon became a reality.
“Let’s drop everything.”
There was no one in this room who didn’t understand English, but even if there were, they would have easily understood what Bush was trying to say just from his tone.
“This low oil price. When are we going to end it?”
It was a manner of speaking that lacked honor and even courtesy, but this was the topic that Putin and Abdullah had been waiting for. It was Putin and Abdullah who were anxious.
The majority of Russia’s exports were oil and natural gas, accounting for nearly 60-70% of its total exports. Saudi Arabia, a country built on oil, needs no further explanation.
On the other hand, while oil was an important industry supporting the United States, the country’s existence wasn’t at risk even if the oil business took a hit. However, the private economy would be devastated, but even if the government was replaced or criticized, the country’s existence itself wouldn’t be shaken.
“Let’s be honest. Isn’t the alternative energy business faltering all over the world because of the current low oil prices?”
Upon hearing those words, Abdullah tried hard to hide the agitation that was about to surface.
In the United States, it was a business that had passed its expiration date and was being phased out with the shale boom from the previous administration, but in Saudi Arabia, it was still active and was the future itself that would sustain Saudi Arabia. It was a country that prospered with oil, but conversely, if something like this happened or if all the oil ran out, it would be a fall from grace.
Even if they wanted to expand and grow other manufacturing or businesses, they lacked the technology, and with virtually no women’s rights, there were no jobs in the country. Men refused to work and refused to be educated.
Even if they wanted to start a business, the corruption was worse than in Russia, and without backing, the business itself wouldn’t be approved. This, combined with the above problems, led to a youth unemployment rate of over 40%. In fact, this was last year’s story, and there was desperate news that it might exceed 45% this year.
This is an environment where companies can never grow. For this reason, Saudi Arabia was betting everything on the alternative energy business, with the grand dream of covering the entire country with solar or solar thermal power plants to become an electric power powerhouse.
However, one prerequisite was necessary to smoothly develop the alternative energy business. That was that the oil price must be ‘high oil prices.’
Money is honest. Therefore, if solar panels are more expensive and less efficient than simply burning oil in an oil power plant, alternative energy will simply become a white elephant [a possession that is costly to maintain and produces little to no value]. From the beginning, the driving force behind alternative energy development was the ‘fear’ that oil would eventually run out.
People sometimes argue about morality, but in the end, companies are drawn to where the money smells, not morality. This is because companies are groups that seek to maximize profits rather than morality or ethics. Whether they are heavily criticized, or their headquarters are bombed, as long as they make as much profit as they set in the New Year’s meeting, that’s all that matters.
The current Saudi Arabia could not satisfy both fear and profit.
The fact that shale contained enough oil to last humanity for at least 200 years was more than enough to dilute that fear, and the price of crude oil was too cheap to pursue profits. In fact, the word ‘cheap’ was not appropriate. It was so excessive that it eventually formed a negative price range.
“These days, oil pipelines don’t move well either.”
After taking the Middle East into its hands, Europe greatly reduced its imports of oil and natural gas from Russia in order to reduce its dependence and move independently. This was giving Russia a subtle blow, separate from the low oil prices. This was not a big blow, because there were many places that wanted oil, not just Europe.
“National policies in each country are also being disrupted.”
This was something that the United States could not avoid either. Of course, if there are industries that collapse like alternative energy, there are also industries that are booming like the aviation industry. These were things that deviated from the plans that Bush had set in advance.
“Shouldn’t we stop now? I know that the Saudi minister said that he doesn’t care if low oil prices become entrenched, no matter what the price is, but at that time, he was calling for $40 a barrel. But now it’s -$40.”
The United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia competed to take control of the energy hegemony or to screw each other over, and as a result, the current oil price plummeted like a cliff, and in the end, they had to shout to give money and take it [a situation where one is willing to pay someone to take something off their hands].
But were they the kind of people who would back down like this? If they were the kind of people who would back down like this, they wouldn’t have agreed to negotiate in the first place. Putin, who still seemed less dead, began to refute Bush’s words. But his appearance was like men bragging in a sauna.
“Our Russia does not agree with your opinion.”
In other words, this was what Bush had feared, ‘No! It’s still bearable! We can produce more!’ In Putin’s case, however, it was more about doing it on purpose than bluffing. This increase in production was about 80% retaliatory.
Saudi Arabia’s goal and purpose was ‘to crush the United States before it spreads its wings!’ but Russia’s goal itself was to increase production, and the purpose was ‘You screw me over? Let’s all die together!’
In addition, the reason why Putin came here was also ridiculous. He was worried that Saudi Arabia and the United States would negotiate smoothly, so he came to sabotage them on purpose. His emotionless, reptile-like eyes looked particularly fierce today.
“And even if the oil pipelines are quiet, we have oil tankers. Besides, Russia is not as difficult as your country is worried about.”
Every word that Putin rolled was sharp. Bush frowned without realizing it, feeling as if his ears would be cut.
“Likewise. This is a clear diplomatic discourtesy and insult.”
Unlike Putin, who was the epitome of a cold-blooded person, Abdullah glared at Bush with an arrogant expression befitting royalty. In his eyes, there was a sense of 余裕 [yoyuu – composure; room; ease] created by wealth. However, his hair, which had become rough due to prolonged exposure to stress, and the blemishes that he could not hide, faded his dignity as a born emperor.
“If you continue to pressure us like this in the future, we will not hesitate to go to war. Even if the target is the United States.”
‘Those guys who would lose one out of three times even if they fought a war with a Welsh Corgi are really talkative.’
Bush barely swallowed what was trying to crawl out of his mouth. His mouth tasted bitter. Russia’s intentions were too obvious, but what was Saudi Arabia’s confidence?
Did they have a secret plan to cope with the ever-increasing debt? Or did they find an ancient lamp in a hidden desert ruin and summon a blue ghost that would grant them only three wishes?
Bush did not digest or tolerate the emotions that were burning uncontrollably. That was what the private negotiation was for. He did not hide the anger that rose from the depths of his lungs and up his spine, and he spat it out in vivid colors.
“Then what are you going to do? Didn’t you come here to negotiate that damn oil price? Or are you really going to have a war, huh?”
Silence fell in the conference room as Bush growled softly. The most dangerous thing about the United States right now was that it was a country that really had the capacity to wage one or two wars at the same time and was the most powerful military in the world.
The biggest enemy of the United States is none other than the Americans. The United States has never lost a war for external reasons. Even the Vietnam War, which is said to have been a clear defeat for the United States, was withdrawn due to the spread of domestic anti-war sentiment and the problem of war support, not due to tactics, equipment, or the morale of the soldiers.
And now, George W. Bush’s America was more prepared for war than ever before, even in peacetime. There was already an excellent example of Afghanistan. Afghanistan was showing the end of a country that resisted an eagle full of poison.
The regime was replaced with a pro-American one, and it became a body that could not live without the United States. Neither Russia nor Saudi Arabia had any guarantee of winning a war with the United States. Still, in the case of Russia, they could at least compromise to some extent based on mutually assured destruction because they had nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia could not even do that.
“Even if the three countries agree to cut oil production, there may be problems with the allocation.”
Abdullah opened his mouth while Bush was seriously considering training Welsh Corgis as airborne troops and deploying them to the battlefield in a possible war with Saudi Arabia.
“Isn’t it enough to just return to normal? The allocation can be decided later through discussions with working-level staff. If there are complaints, we can just explain them reasonably and kindly.”
Even without anyone explaining it separately, Abdullah realized that the reasonable thing was the ‘free delivery’ that the United States was shouting so much about.
“First of all, we must reduce at least 25 million barrels.”
It would have been an absurd figure in normal times, but the world had increased production that much. They increased production to an unprecedented level. They increased production to a level that would never come out again. They increased production recklessly with the purpose of beating and strangling each other to death.
The problem was that all three had put a rope around each other’s necks, and they were destined to slowly suffocate unless they loosened the rope.
“Hmm.”
Abdullah fell into 고민 [gomin – worry; anguish; suffering]. If Saudi Arabia decided, OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] would accept it. It was no exaggeration to say that if Saudi Arabia accepted it, this negotiation would be over.
Unfortunately, however, there was not only the Saudi King and Prime Minister in this meeting.
“Reduce 25 million barrels?”