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‘Not good.’
Tony Blair repeated this to himself several times.
‘Should I pull out now?’
From the moment the European Unified Forces were formed, Tony’s sharp mind had already calculated the potential gains and losses from Operation Iraqi Freedom. The war ending swiftly was somewhat expected, but the aftermath was the problem. He had never anticipated that Iraq would be divided into East and West.
The EU engaged in Iraq partly as a retaliatory war against terrorism, but also with the aim of planting democracy in the Middle East. The problem was that achieving this goal required the European Unified Forces to be stationed in Iraq semi-permanently until democracy took root.
Tony was always considering disarmament. The reason all European armies were maintaining astronomical defense budgets was solely due to the visible enemy: the Soviet Union. However, the Soviet Union had collapsed, and Europe, which had been fiercely fighting with a long tradition, was now bound together as the EU.
So, the only potential enemies were Middle Eastern countries and China. China was too far away, and its sphere of influence overlapped with the United States, which diluted the sense of crisis felt by Europe, including Britain, towards China. The immediate crisis was in the nearby Middle East, but there were too many countries in the narrow nation of Iraq.
Of course, strictly speaking, they were all united under the banner of the European Unified Forces, so it could be considered one country, but what could a hastily launched army like the European Unified Forces actually do?
The only consolation was that it followed NATO standards.
In any case, Tony Blair wanted disarmament. The military was always a budget-eating monster, and he believed that diverting that budget elsewhere could lead Britain in a better direction.
However, the British Parliament and the leaders of other countries, damn them, did not want disarmament. They wanted more interests in that narrow land, more oil.
Of course, the influence that the European Unified Forces stationed in Iraq could have on the Middle East was beyond imagination, so they would intervene through international diplomacy, but they wouldn’t declare, ‘Democracy has arrived!’ However, if they wanted to project influence in the Middle East and attract its share in the future international situation, the number of troops stationed in the distant Middle East would likely be the main factor determining the strength of their voice.
Tony Blair had no intention of participating in that damn chicken race, using his country’s tax money as stakes.
The Middle East was like a swamp where treasures were sinking. At first, one might be energetic enough to retrieve a few gold coins from the bottom of the swamp. But after picking up coins two or three times, there would inevitably come a moment when the weight of the gold would make it impossible to climb out of the swamp.
Eventually, when they realized it was too late, they would face a situation where they couldn’t throw away the gold or get out of the swamp, a situation where they couldn’t laugh or cry.
The gold was oil, and the greed was the desire to cover sunk costs.
Of course, Tony didn’t want to retreat after only seeing blood, but what could he do when it seemed like he would lose everything if he stayed?
Since the Unified Forces were formed urgently, an individual country could easily withdraw from this operation by citing domestic political reasons. However, if they did, the name of the blood that Britain would shed would change from defense budget to political impeachment.
Whatever the outcome of stationing troops in West Iraq, someone would eventually have to take political responsibility for the situation, and that would be Tony Blair himself. And Tony was reluctant to be removed from his position by the people, even if it meant resigning.
He was a fiercely pragmatic politician. What had happened had not yet happened, and it wasn’t certain if it would happen in the future. In the future that Kim Gap-hwan knew, Tony was called ‘Bush’s poodle’ and often referred to by the derogatory term ‘Tony Blur.’ The British people considered Tony’s reign a dark age and regarded him as the weakest leader.
The Britain he led was a dependent power, especially dragged around by the United States. Tony chose to go with the flow as much as possible within the limits of what he could do for the national interest, but the British, who would not be second to anyone when it came to pride, hated Tony’s approach.
Just 18 years ago, Britain had even waged the Falklands War over a matter of pride. At the time, the Argentine government thought that if they occupied the Falklands, the British government on the other side of the world would engage in relatively moderate diplomatic negotiations rather than declaring war, but the British thought differently.
Although opinions were somewhat divided, the British thought, ‘Britain is not dead yet!’ and the Falklands War began. What is important here is that the Falklands War shows how belligerent the British can become when their pride is at stake.
At the time, Britain was in a situation that could be called an economic crisis, but they did not hesitate to spend a large sum of money to dispatch troops. They were so desperate that they scraped together everything they had and requisitioned everything from civilian merchant ships to luxury passenger ships to transport troops.
So, should we do the same this time? Tony was skeptical. The purpose and goal were clear during the Falklands War, but this time it was ambiguous.
Of course, there was a secondary goal of arresting al-Zarqawi, but there was nothing else. Spreading democracy in the Middle East? How far will we spread it? Where and until when will we wage the war on terror? Fortunately, this time there was an easy-to-understand target called Iraq, but there was no guarantee that it would be the same next time.
War is like drinking alcohol. You can digest it without overdoing it up to the first and second rounds, but if it exceeds the third and fourth rounds, you can’t control your body. In this case, it would be right to say that the country collapses from financial difficulties.
Withdrawing from the Middle East was a cliff, and not withdrawing was a swamp that sank endlessly.
“Prime Minister.”
This news came when Tony was racking his brains because he didn’t have a good solution.
“Another request for increased Brent oil production has come from the United States.”
“Again?”
Around this time, Bush was constantly asking Britain to increase the production of Brent oil [oil extracted from the North Sea] and supply it to the market in order to check Russia, which was about to take off. It was more like a threat to kill them if they didn’t solve it, but Tony, who wanted to avoid conflict with the United States as much as possible, willingly accepted the United States’ request.
Until yesterday.
“Next time, they’ll threaten to take our oil!”
In fact, it wasn’t much different now, but at least they weren’t robbing it at a bargain price.
“Tell them it’s difficult now.”
Increasing production ultimately meant increasing the scale of facilities, and that wasn’t easy in the North Sea oil fields, which were deep-sea oil fields. Until now, they had been able to make temporary fixes by bringing in other crude oil or releasing inventory, but making a full-scale production increase decision for diplomatic reasons alone was close to impossible.
However, Britain couldn’t just say ‘No! I won’t do it! Eat potatoes!’ to the United States, so they needed an excuse. For now, the United States was the boss in all international relations related to Britain, whether it was NATO or the UN.
“Tell them we’ll try to do it somehow this time. But from next time-. Damn it.”
While saying that, Tony encountered a temptation that was too strong.
There was a way. A divine move that could perfectly meet the demands of the United States, the British Parliament, and the people. No, it was more like the devil’s temptation than a divine move.
“Oh! God!”
The clue to the answer seemed to be flickering in the Middle East, which Tony Blair wanted to avoid so much. However, he couldn’t tell whether the shaking clue was the tail of a ferocious tiger that Britain couldn’t handle or the tail of a lovely fox.
The common point between the two was that both had considerable value if they succeeded in catching them. Dubai oil was such an existence. Britain with both Brent oil and Dubai oil!
‘That’s impossible.’
Dubai oil will be torn to pieces. Even if the outside looks fine, it will be sucked dry by the EU and only the shell will remain. Many terrorist attacks were being detected in Arab countries. They were still focused on the cat-and-mouse game with al-Zarqawi, so there was no major friction in the full-scale struggle for interests, but even if al-Zarqawi was arrested in the next two or three months, they would carry out a full-scale projection of power under the pretext of preventing terrorism.
And many countries in the EU will dismantle the small pie into pieces.
The problem was that this tiny piece of pie was the answer that could satisfy all forces except Tony.
“I don’t know how to behave at all.”
Choose whether to eat 욕 [a Korean swear word] now or later!
“This damn it!”
Today, I wanted to turn the White House into ashes like in the War of 1812.
* * *
“A, Achoo-!!!”
Bush, who coughed loudly enough to make the White House shake, picked his ear.
“Chief of Staff. My ears have been itchy lately. I suspect someone is cursing me.”
The Chief of Staff looked at him with a ‘don’t talk nonsense’ expression and proceeded with the report. Talking to Bush made him feel like his will to live was fading away, so he wanted to finish it quickly.
“Brent oil has been frozen for now. But if we keep suppressing it like this, there may be a big backlash later.”
“I don’t care. The era of low oil prices will come in a few years anyway. Just block it for a few years.”
Bush, who added the proviso ‘preferably two years,’ turned his eyes back to the documents. In other words, it meant giving him more budget to achieve it within two years and grilling him as much as the increased budget.
He could only wonder why he could be so sure, but the Chief of Staff, who had finished rationalizing that he must have thought it all out, emptied his head. He couldn’t hold this position if he didn’t.
It is said that when a capable person is cornered, they transform the external environment to suit themselves, but the Chief of Staff, despite being one of the most capable people on Earth, was transformed by the external environment like a natural disaster.
And everyone would know what the natural disaster is without having to say it.
“Can I see the Arsenal Ship [a proposed missile battleship] around the time I retire?”
“Actually, the composition of the Arsenal Ship itself is relatively simple, so it can be built within the term if the budget is passed.”
“I feel like we’re going back to missile supremacy.”
Of course, it wasn’t just going to fire cruise missiles, so it was planning to install machine guns for self-defense, but since it needed data, it was planning to operate it with a carrier strike group to see the trend and increase the number of missile battleships.
“How is the UAV doing?”
“I’ll have the report prepared.”
“And I should go on a tour soon, so have a helicopter prepared.”
“…Which helicopter are you talking about?”
If it were a normal president, it would be normal to ask where to tour first, but because Bush said he was going, the Chief of Staff naturally asked about the type of helicopter first.
“Of course, Marine One [the US President’s helicopter]. What are you preparing? What’s wrong with you today, Chief of Staff?”
The Chief of Staff sighed in relief at those words.
“What? What’s with that expression?”
“No. It’s nothing.”
Of course, the Chief of Staff’s relief was because Bush said he would obediently ride Marine One. He was worried about what to do if he asked for a Comanche like last time. He was even happy that he seemed to be restraining himself.
“I’ll have to replace Marine One soon.”
“Oh, no.”
I’m not happy anymore.