209. The Temptation of Populism
Inside the ruling party headquarters.
The ruling party members were overflowing with complaints.
“Seriously! His Excellency is going too far! He couldn’t even create a 100-year ruling party, and now he’s abandoning us after only four years since its founding. What are we supposed to do?”
“Sigh~ Actually, it’s our own fault if you think about it. We also broke up the existing party and formed a new one. We’re just getting our comeuppance for the ruling party privileges we got for free.”
“It’s a relief that the North isn’t fielding a candidate, but if the President steps back like this, won’t our party be flooded with candidates?”
“Flooded? What flood? It’s pretty much set with just a handful of people. Assemblyman Park, are you thinking of running?”
“The candidates are already decided?”
“Don’t you know who the President is backing?”
“The President? … Could it be…?”
“That’s right. He’s backing Chairman Jung. He’s going to repay him for giving up his candidacy in the past, allowing him to serve consecutive terms.”
“So, it’s only nominally an independent run?”
“It’s all a political show. Just trying to lighten Chairman Jung’s burden.”
“To think that another parachute appointment [an appointment of someone from above, without regard for existing members] is coming into a party we built with blood and sweat! What about us?”
“His Excellency hates factional politics. He’s thinking of completely replacing the party.”
“Hmm, we can’t just sit here and take it. Since His Excellency is neutral and considered an outsider now, if we unify the candidates within the party, and since the party members are on our side, we might be able to handle one parachute appointment, don’t you think?”
“I think so too. Although I don’t know if the unification will work out properly.”
“But is Chairman Jung even going to run? He said he wouldn’t do politics and would focus solely on business activities.”
“Who knows? Is there any man who doesn’t have ambitions for the presidency?”
*
Inside the opposition party headquarters.
Unlike the ruling party, the opposition party had a festive atmosphere.
“No candidate from the North, and the President is forming a neutral cabinet! Even though I’m from the opposition party, I admire His Excellency’s decisiveness.”
“That’s right, Chairman Kim! Now we can really take off our rank insignia and have a go.”
“All we have to do is win the hearts of the North.”
Chairman Kim Dae-sam was burning with ambition.
“Chairman, how about using the slogan ‘End Military Rule, Establish Civilian Government’ for this unified presidential election?”
“Hmm, that makes sense, but if a civilian candidate runs from the ruling party, it’ll lose its impact.”
“Ah, that’s true!”
“I have a key pledge in mind. A groundbreaking slogan that the people will applaud.”
“Oh, really!”
Chairman Kim resigned from his position as chairman and entered the opposition party’s presidential candidate race.
*
Inside the ruling party chairman’s office.
Chairman Jung was meeting with the ruling party’s chairman.
The chairman’s eyes widened at Chairman Jung’s words.
“You’re running, but as an independent?”
“That’s right.”
“I thought you were coming to join the party, but this is very unexpected.”
“Since I’m an independent, I don’t need to inform the ruling party, but I’m telling the ruling party first as a matter of courtesy.”
The chairman began to carefully manage his expression.
“This is truly perplexing. His Excellency was able to do it because of his high recognition, but Chairman Jung, you have almost no political experience. Can you really run empty-handed?”
He pretended to care about Chairman Jung quite a bit.
“Thank you for your concern, but I feel more comfortable appealing directly to the people than receiving support from a political party.”
“It seems you’ve already made up your mind, so it would be a waste of time for me to say more. Anyway, congratulations on your candidacy, and I wish you good luck.”
“Thank you.”
That evening, the ruling party executives gathered for a meeting.
“Isn’t it a great opportunity for our party members if Chairman Jung, who has His Excellency’s backing, runs as an independent?”
“Not necessarily.”
“What? With the ruling party premium, we shouldn’t be at a disadvantage compared to Chairman Jung.”
“Chairman Jung will split the ruling party votes, leaving the opposition party to enjoy the benefits.”
“Ah, Chairman Jung is His Excellency’s man, so it’ll be a three-way split! Is Chairman Jung running knowing that it’s disadvantageous to the ruling party?”
“It’s practically a suicide move for the ruling party.”
“Shouldn’t His Excellency stop this?”
“That’s why His Excellency left the party early. In my opinion, leaving the party and running as an independent is a concept to support independent Chairman Jung.”
“Ah! Independent alliance!”
“We’ve been backstabbed.”
“Hmm, so that’s what the neutral cabinet was all about! To be outsmarted again by a political mastermind!”
The planning director, who had been listening, spoke up.
“I think differently.”
“…….”
“No matter what tricks he uses, an individual can’t beat an organization. We need to show the power of the organization this time.”
*
Chairman Jung called newspaper reporters to his office and announced his independent presidential candidacy.
A few days later, the South’s presidential candidate support poll was released.
Opposition party Kim Dae-sam 38%, ruling party Noh Myung-bak 29%, independent Jung Joo-hyun 24%, and others followed.
As a result of the presidential candidate primary held by the ruling and opposition parties, Assemblyman Noh Myung-bak was elected from the ruling party, and Chairman Kim Dae-sam was elected from the opposition party, in the order of the poll results.
In the North’s poll, candidate Jung was overwhelming, but the meaning of the ranking faded as the no-response rate exceeded 80%.
The election commission organized TV and radio debates between candidates to help North Korean residents, who were unfamiliar with free elections, understand.
*
KBS [Korean Broadcasting System].
The candidate debate was being held.
Only the top four candidates in the polls attended the debate.
Candidate Jung’s pledges were realistic.
“During my term, I will completely eliminate the income gap between the North and South through balanced development of the entire country. I will eliminate the sense of alienation between the North and South and achieve complete cultural integration. Until then, I hope the people will tighten their belts a little.”
In an election campaign, the people are supposed to be everything, and it’s not enough to flatter them by spoon-feeding them even if they do nothing, but Representative Jung was instead demanding sacrifices from the people.
The ruling party candidate Noh’s election strategy was negative.
“Candidate Jung, while managing the sovereign wealth fund, the national dividend for this quarter has decreased by 75% compared to the previous year. How can we entrust the country’s finances to someone who can’t even protect the granary well?”
South Korean citizens were inwardly dissatisfied because investments in North Korean reconstruction projects reduced national pension and fund returns, and taxes increased.
The ruling party representative touched on this sentiment.
Candidate Jung replied.
“We are investing more than half of the sovereign wealth fund in North Korean reconstruction. This is not a loss. It can be recovered in a few years, and it is an essential process to reduce the gap between the North and South so that the entire country can become prosperous.”
“Shouldn’t the fund prioritize profitability? Aren’t you investing too excessively?”
“We have invested more than five times as much in overseas funds as in domestic funds, and it’s not someone else’s business, but our country’s business, so we can’t just stand by. If it’s not a fund investment, you need to know how many times the current taxes would have to be raised to cover the unification costs.”
The opposition party candidate Kim’s strategy was populism [political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups].
“Now, welfare is the supreme task for the Republic of Korea. Venezuela, the second-largest oil producer, has expanded its civil servant quota so that one in four adults is a civil servant. Greece bears 50% of the cost in all aspects, including education, medical care, and employment. The Philippines also lives well without working even half as much as we do. If I become president, I will nationalize all key industries and make Korea join the ranks of welfare-advanced countries, reducing working hours by half!”
Watching TV, the President felt as if a sweet potato was stuck in his chest due to the opposition party representative’s populist welfare pledges.
“That idiot! Do you even know what will happen to Venezuela, the Philippines, and Greece that you admire so much?”
Venezuela, the world’s second-largest oil producer, had the world’s fourth-largest GDP [Gross Domestic Product] in the 1950s.
However, in 2018, the inflation rate reached a whopping 1.37 million percent.
Bringing a bag of money was not even worth $1, so inflation was so murderous that it was more valuable to make handicrafts out of banknotes and sell them.
In 2019, the economic growth rate was -25%, and the majority became beggars, with 20% of the population fleeing abroad.
The reason why it has fallen into such a mess is because of the leader who took power, promising to build a welfare state that surpasses the United States.
Instead of developing the industry to extend its rule, the ruling party spent money earned from selling crude oil, but when international oil prices plummeted, it could not afford the welfare costs.
At that point, they should have carried out reforms that cut to the bone, but instead, they nationalized them, reducing efficiency, and borrowed large-scale loans to maintain welfare policies as they were, and after repeatedly engaging in populism to gain the people’s votes, they fell into an irreparable beggar state.
The 1960s in the Philippines were legendary.
At that time, China’s per capita income was $100, the superpower Soviet Union was $1,000 to $1,300, and the United States was in the $2,000 to $2,500 era.
The Republic of Korea was lower than North Korea at $80, Thailand was $250, and the Philippines was a country with $500, 12 times higher than Korea.
At that time, Japan’s national income was $600 to $700 (based on 1965), so the Philippines was one of the two dragons of Asia, with no significant difference from Japan, which represented Asia.
President Park, who visited the Philippines at the time, could not hide his envy when he saw the streets of Manila.
“I am really envious of the Philippines. I hope we can resemble even half of the Philippines.”
If the Philippines had worked hard with all its might, it would have become an economic superpower on par with Japan.
However, when Marcos took long-term power in 1965, the Philippines began a bottomless fall.
In the 2000s, 5% of the wealthy owned 90% of the wealth, and 54% of the people had an income of less than $2 a day, turning into a failed country with only the upper class and a large number of poor people, without a middle class.
The collapse of Greece is also due to political leaders.
Greece made enough money from trade and shipping just by staying still due to its geographically advantageous location along the Mediterranean Sea.
However, in 1981, Andreas Papandreou, a socialist, put forward the following pledges to take power.
– We will give the people everything they want!
He advocated unlimited welfare.
The people, who were used to playing, did not refuse to give him their votes, saying that they would live better even if they played more than now.
During his approximately 11 years in office over two terms, Greece completely collapsed.
The economy fell into negative growth due to indiscriminate populism, and eventually, it faced national bankruptcy due to a shortage of foreign exchange.
The people had to spit out all the welfare they had received and tighten their belts for more than a decade to repay their debts.
But now, in Korea, a presidential candidate is making sweet talk about populism that is ruining the country, so the President, who knows the future, is heartbroken.
Chairman Jung asked the opposition party candidate.
“The cost of reconstruction in the North is already tight, so how do you plan to raise that much welfare money?”
“We are an oil-producing country, but we are buying at 70-80% of the oil price. Is it reasonable for an oil-producing country to buy and use it with money? We are putting the money from selling oil into funds and depriving the people of their prosperous lives. I will use this as a welfare resource.”
“Candidate Kim, the current oil shock is causing crude oil prices to be at an all-time high, but if it returns to its original state, the profit will shrink to 1/10. It is a big mistake to think that the same amount of dollars will continue to come in. We are making long-term investments that can sustain profits in preparation for that time.”
The welfare state has emerged as a major issue in the presidential election.
The key was the people’s ability to judge the harm of populism that candidates were throwing around.