Y13 [EN]: Chapter 185

2011 Off-Season

Even after a lengthy discussion that seemed to run in circles, Donnie Nelson resorted to the complex charts prepared by the power analysis team. He and Cuban prided themselves on being among the best in the league at utilizing data, so this was his ultimate weapon to persuade Cuban.

The data meticulously illustrated why Chandler was essential for the team. Chandler’s arrival in Dallas had not only improved numerous team statistics but also significantly boosted the performance of individual Dallas players.

The first page highlighted Nowitzki’s chart.

“First of all, Nowitzki recorded his career-high field goal percentage last season, from shots in the paint, mid-range, and even beyond the three-point line. The same holds true for his defensive plus/minus record. Among all the centers he’s played with over his 13 years, Chandler was the best fit. He not only reduced Nowitzki’s defensive burden, like rebounding and rim protection, but also eased his offensive load as a reliable screener. Considering Nowitzki’s age, pairing him with a strong defensive center is crucial.”

After explaining Nowitzki’s chart, Nelson immediately moved on to the next page, which displayed Youngjae’s chart. Dozens of data points intricately detailed Youngjae’s stats when playing with Chandler, Mahinmi, and Haywood.

“And here’s the chart for Yoon, our team’s primary ball-handler. Yoon’s performance shows a significant difference depending on whether Chandler is on the court. When Chandler plays, Yoon’s eFG% [effective field goal percentage, adjusting for three-pointers] is 9% higher compared to when he plays with Mahinmi or Haywood. On average, more than two of Yoon’s assists come from Chandler’s alley-oops and easy baskets.”

“Defensively, Yoon and Chandler combine for over two forced turnovers per game. Yoon’s performance is heavily influenced by the quality of his screener, indicating he’s a player who effectively utilizes screens. Haywood and Mahinmi are definitely not strong screeners. Furthermore, even Howard’s strength lies in his athleticism, not his screening ability. This suggests that the synergy between Yoon and Howard might not be as great as expected.”

Nelson’s charts continued for several more pages, and Cuban listened attentively, showing no signs of boredom. He occasionally asked Nelson to clarify points he didn’t understand or found unclear. As Nelson concluded his presentation, Cuban sank into deep thought. Seeing Cuban lost in contemplation, Nelson glanced at other players and this season’s free agent list, his mind drifting to other concerns.

After a long silence, Cuban spoke first.

“Alright, Nelson, you’re right. I understand why we need Chandler on our team. I agree that Howard’s impact might be less than anticipated. Remember, we’ve overpaid for center players in the past, and we can’t afford to repeat that mistake. I can tolerate a certain level of overpayment, but there’s a limit.”

Dallas had seen a revolving door of centers, but none had truly satisfied Cuban’s expectations. After Shawn Bradley, numerous centers like Sagana Diop, Bruno Sundov, Sean Rooks, Calvin Booth, and Erick Dampier were given starting roles, but they commanded high salaries without delivering elite-level performance. Erick Dampier, in particular, was considered one of the most overpaid players in league history.

Haywood had shown top-tier potential two years prior and earned a long-term contract, but he failed to live up to expectations last season. However, with Chandler displaying defensive prowess, Dallas suddenly possessed two starting-caliber centers, forming the best center lineup in Dallas history and one of the best defensive center pairings in the league.

“What are the acceptable and maximum values you have in mind for Chandler? Honestly, Chandler’s camp is aiming for a maximum contract, but NBA officials recognize that this is just posturing [Bluffing; a deceptive tactic to make one’s position seem stronger than it is]. No team will offer Chandler the maximum.”

Chandler’s agent, Jeff Schwartz, was reportedly seeking $75-80 million over four years, capitalizing on Tyson Chandler’s career-best season. However, experts widely dismissed this figure as unrealistic. Chandler was likely aware of this, but his insistence on a high price was also fueled by resentment that Dallas had never truly recognized his value since the end of the season.

“Of course, posturing is a standard element in the free agent market. Players and agents want the most money possible, while clubs aim for the lowest price. I think Chandler’s fair value is $10-12 million per year on average. But the current market is inflated. Both Nene and Chandler, the top free agent centers, are demanding maximum contracts. Therefore, the most I’m willing to pay, accepting some overpayment based on my standards, is up to $45 million for 3 years or $56 million for 4 years. I can’t agree to anything more than that.”

Donnie Nelson nodded with a relieved expression, feeling that he had successfully swayed Cuban’s thinking to some extent.

“Okay, I had a slightly higher guideline in mind, but we can revisit that later. I don’t believe any team will spend more than $15 million a year on either Nene or Chandler. Nene has defensive liabilities, and Chandler has offensive limitations. Frankly, Dwight Howard is the only center who truly warrants a maximum contract. As a result, the value of players in the tier below is skyrocketing.”

The center position was currently considered weak. With Dwight Howard as the clear exception, Al Horford, Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, and Andrew Bynum, all considered slightly below All-Star level, formed the next tier. Based solely on last season’s performance, Tyson Chandler could reasonably be placed right after Howard.

“And I’m concerned about Chandler’s history of injuries. How are you addressing that?”

“I consulted with the medical staff and the athletic training (AT) team on that issue. Both teams believe that Chandler is in excellent physical condition and that he won’t experience frequent injuries as long as he plays within our system. Our medical and AT teams are among the best in the league, second only to Phoenix. There’s no comparison to other teams. Casey Smith, the head trainer, expressed confidence in Chandler’s physical resilience.”

Following that, the discussion shifted to re-signing existing players. Nelson believed they should secure Barea and Butler, even if it meant overpaying slightly, and that Cardinal, DeShawn Stevenson, and Peja Stojakovic could be signed to minimum contracts or allowed to leave. However, Donnie Nelson sighed inwardly as he saw Cuban’s lukewarm response to other players, and he idly swirled his teacup, feeling like this might be their last chance.

“Cuban, I’ve worked with you for many years, and I’m deeply committed to the Dallas Mavericks, fueled by your passion. I know that these intense discussions stem from our shared desire to make the Dallas Mavericks a championship-caliber team.”

Cuban simply nodded, remaining silent.

“We need to reflect on our past failures. Looking back at the playoff disappointments and missed championship opportunities, I believe they often resulted from our obsession with hasty rebuilding and pursuing big-name players based solely on their reputation. Of course, I initially agreed with your approach because I understood the circumstances. Back then, we still carried the image of a struggling team, and the club’s profitability wasn’t strong, so I concurred. But now, we’re a major market team, ranking high in season ticket sales and TV broadcasting revenue. I think we should prioritize practicality over star power and name recognition.”

“…”

“Last season, I experienced something profound when we defied all expectations and won the championship. It’s time for a different mindset. Cuban, we’ve drafted talented players with lower first-round picks for two consecutive years, and now we’re the defending champions, having achieved a remarkable victory. Regardless of player intentions, salaries, and everything else, we’re now a winning team. That means we’re a team that’s more attractive than any other. Consequently, we can build an even stronger winning team by addressing our weaknesses.”

Cuban was well aware of this. In fact, as Cuban, he likely had a clearer understanding than Donnie Nelson of the commercial benefits they were reaping. However, Cuban countered Nelson by emphasizing the long-term health of the team, setting aside his business perspective as the owner of the Dallas Mavericks.

“But, Nelson, our team’s core players are getting old. Chandler, Barea, and Butler are only younger than Kidd, Terry, and Nowitzki, and they’re all in their 30s or approaching 30. It’s uncertain when Beaubois will fully recover. That leaves Yoon and Brewer as our only truly young prospects. In short, if this all-in strategy fails, we have no future. If the team were young, we could still look to the future even if one or two long-term contracts didn’t pan out. But our situation is different.”

“I understand, Cuban. In the past, we couldn’t afford to commit fully, so we maintained our financial flexibility and remained a competitive team, constantly reloading. But now we’ve won, and we have the assets to protect our championship. Shouldn’t we take a calculated risk?”

Donnie Nelson used a word he rarely uttered, and Cuban looked at him with surprise.

“Gambling… gambling? I never expected to hear those words from you, Nelson. Haha. You’ve always been more cautious than me, yet you’re advocating for gambling. May I ask what changed your mind?”

Nelson smiled faintly and shrugged, as if it were nothing.

“It’s nothing dramatic. I just developed a feeling while watching our team this season. This team is capable of even more. Even last season, if we hadn’t been plagued by injuries, we could have surpassed our record from the 2005-06 season. Caron Butler’s long-term injury mid-season, and the simultaneous injuries to Nowitzki and Chandler. When we were at full strength, our team’s winning percentage was close to 90%. And next year, Yoon has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Wade and Kobe. Next year, we could have the number one power forward, a top-three shooting guard, a top-five center, and the best bench in the league. No other team in the league can boast that kind of roster. Miami has a weak bench, and Oklahoma, Chicago, and the Lakers have favorable matchups. If Brewer continues to develop, San Antonio won’t be a threat either.”

Donnie Nelson’s vision bordered on idealism. Of course, if it were that simple, Cuban wouldn’t be agonizing over these decisions. Cuban, more than anyone, attended the games, connected with the players, and shared their triumphs and defeats. His ‘affection’ for the players was undeniable. But even so, Cuban had to remain objective during the off-season.

There were numerous examples of clubs spiraling into mediocrity because they were manipulated by players. They had witnessed the situations with LeBron James in Cleveland and Deron Williams in Utah firsthand. Those teams were controlled by their star players, resulting in dysfunctional squads with high costs and low efficiency.

Conversely, Denver’s Masai Ujiri refused to be swayed by Carmelo Anthony and instead traded him, instantly transforming the team’s identity. Cuban leaned towards the latter approach. Only by maintaining control could the team move in the right direction.

“Isn’t that a bit too… optimistic? We don’t know when Kidd and Terry will decline. At their age, the drop-off can be sudden. And there’s no guarantee that Butler and Chandler will stay healthy next year, or that Yoon and Brewer will continue to improve.”

“I can’t deny that I’m focusing on the positive aspects. But isn’t that what it takes to win a championship? I have a strong feeling that I’ll regret it if we let this winning core slip away while prioritizing financial flexibility.”

Cuban closed his eyes tightly as he listened to Nelson’s final words. The phrase ‘I think I’ll regret it’ resonated deeply. Years ago, he had passed on the opportunity to give Steve Nash, then in his 30s, a long-term contract, allowing him to leave. As a result, Steve Nash blossomed into an elite point guard, becoming a symbol of the Phoenix Suns and winning back-to-back MVP awards, a feat rarely achieved by point guards.

He suddenly recalled that the Dallas Mavericks had gained nothing and lost a valuable asset by letting go of such a player. Moreover, he had always believed in the potential benefits of expiring contracts. However, Cuban knew from experience that expiring contracts often led players to prioritize personal stats over teamwork. A passive team lacking toughness and hustle due to fear of injury, a team that sacrificed teamwork for individual glory. This had been the image of the Dallas Mavericks for many years.

In contrast, Chandler, Barea, Butler, Cardinal, Stojakovic, and Stevenson were all players who prioritized the team over personal achievements, despite being on expiring contracts. They fought together, displayed relentless hustle, and contributed to a championship by fitting into the team’s system rather than demanding the system adapt to them. The difference between Dallas last season and the previous ones was the players’ passion and toughness.

These conflicting thoughts swirled in Cuban’s mind, his expression shifting from moment to moment.

“Hoo.”

Finally, Cuban took a deep breath and slowly opened his mouth.

“Okay, let’s try to keep this roster intact as much as possible. But let’s set firm limits and let them walk if they exceed those limits. I know that if we lose a player with Bird rights [the right to re-sign a player belonging to the team, even if it exceeds the salary cap], our only additions will be minimum-salary players. But long-term contracts always require caution. Chandler’s deal is the amount I mentioned earlier, Barea at 4 years 12M, Butler at 4 years 24M. I won’t approve anything beyond that. If we re-sign them at those figures, our salary will exceed 88 million dollars. We’ll have to pay more than 20 million dollars in luxury tax alone. And even if Kidd and Terry’s contracts expire next year, we’ll still be over the salary cap. Even if we re-sign them at these prices, we’ll be limited for the next 4 years, and I don’t even want to imagine the consequences if we exceed those amounts.”

Nelson smiled contentedly as he looked at Cuban, who had finally come around, and nodded in agreement.

“I’ll try to negotiate the best possible deals. I agree that too much risk is too much risk. I don’t think a maximum contract for Chandler or a full mid-level exception [approximately 5M per year] or higher salary for Butler is the right move either. We’ll adjust our approach based on the negotiations with them. Let’s research potential 14th and 15th roster spots and discuss them again.”

Donnie Nelson fully understood Cuban’s position. He didn’t want to take on excessive risk either. No matter how enticing the dream of winning was, he had no intention of falling into the trap of overpaying and condemning the team to a period of mediocrity for 3-4 years.

============================ Author’s Note ============================

★Thank you to those who pre-ordered, recommended, commented, and gave coupons!!

★Thank you for the sponsorship coupons from Kunya, Bread Doa, and Sometimes Devil!! I will continue to update diligently in the future^^

＠Dividing the meeting part into two episodes resulted in an unintentional twist. So today’s episode has more volume than usual. I can’t divide it anymore;; And, since this is a meeting only for the club’s management, it is unknown whether the players will renew their contracts as discussed. In the FA market, a crazy team always appears and overpays. The players may have left Jeong ㅎㅎ.

＠Personally, I think some gambling is necessary to win. Unless the players all pay cuts as a group like San Antonio. Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan have all been paying cuts. This is very rare. Without their pay cuts, it would have been difficult for San Antonio, a small market, to maintain a thick roster other than the Big 3.

＠I hate club management who are swayed by players, and I hate players who try to sway the club very much. I hate the fact that there is a player above the team itself. So I plan to minimize Youngjae’s direct involvement. It’s difficult to get directly involved because of the number of years.

＠Contract terms are only for those who are interested. You can just read the main text and skip it. Bird’s rights and mid-level are explained on the NBA official FAQ page, which is over 2-3 pages ㅋㅋ. You can discuss it in the NBA community even if you only know the explanation below.

※Bird Rights: An exception clause that allows a player to sign a contract exceeding the salary cap if he has played for a team for more than 3 years. However, a certain percentage of the existing salary is caught in the salary cap as a cap hold. You can often see the phrase ‘giving up Bird’s rights’ when emptying the salary cap to sign FA. The clause is named after Larry Bird, and in the case of 2 years or less, you can get slightly different Early Bird rights.

※Mid-Level: An exception clause that allows a team that has exceeded the luxury tax line to sign a contract with a mini mid-level (3M per year), and a team between the salary cap and the luxury tax line to sign a full mid-level (5M per year) contract while the salary cap is exceeded.

mvp33님/// Haha, thank you. I wrote it on another computer, so ㅠ.ㅠ

Ultra 10, goimosp, Lapierre and Jint, Goddess Yuri Praise/// It was cut off there in the previous episode ㄷㄷ. In reality, Dallas sent Chandler and brought Odom, who had one year left on his contract, but that Odom… Existing player re-signing is possible even if the salary is over. Instead, external recruitment is limited.

Eunseol Seolya, Financier, Vanishing Soul, Kingdom Brothers, -DarkANGEL-/// Thank you for your comments!! Have a great weekend tomorrow~

ㅎ0ㅎ님/// The gap between rich and poor is severe in the NBA as well. Minimum players are really cheap. However, the average salary is higher than MLB because the number of people is small. MLB has 40 people with salaries of tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars, but NBA has 15 people with salaries between 58 million and 90 million dollars. Basketball is the most popular after American football and Major League Baseball. The average salary in the NBA is over 4 million dollars, which is about 4.6 billion won.

Cowardly Loser Inferior Man/// In reality, Dallas missed Chandler at this time, and the following year, Haywood, Mahinmi, and Wright showed the lowest defense in the league, and the following year, Kaman, Dalembert in 13 years, and Blair. Nowitzki really didn’t have the luck of a defensive center. Eventually, Chandler returned in 14 years and his form improved again.

Milk Boy/// That’s right. Especially in small markets. From the club’s point of view, they have to be careful about luxury taxes, and they have to be careful not to fall into the dark age of the team by making hasty overpayments or long-term contracts. But the player will want to receive more than his value anyway. And for the sake of winning, the salary is not something the player should care about ㅎㅎ.