The Pitcher Just Hits Home Runs Well [EN]: Chapter 131

131. The Successful Pitcher (1)

To modern baseball fans, the term ‘sabermetrics’ was no longer complex or headache-inducing. Of course, even in 2027, the KBO’s [Korean Baseball Organization] data was still far behind the MLB’s [Major League Baseball]. This isn’t about the detailed stats that MLB teams produce themselves. The data KBO fans could access didn’t even come close to the level of Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs data available to everyone in MLB.

But how perfect was MLB’s sabermetrics from the start? Sabermetrics-related information in Korea was clearly developing, and at the center of that development were the two sites, Stats and Never.

Just as the two leading MLB sites are Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, each with their own WAR [Wins Above Replacement] calculations called bWAR and fWAR, Korea also used the names sWAR and nWAR, named after each site. Among them, Donghyun, the manager of Never, updated yesterday’s game results and checked the resulting stat changes. He was so fond of these numbers that it was a very satisfying moment of combining work and passion.

“Huh?”

Something was strange.

After blinking a few times, he immediately opened his smartphone. At the very top of his smartphone’s favorites was none other than the homepage of his competitor, Stats.

“Choi Su-won… Choi Su-won… Choi Su-won… Ah, why is it so slow? They really need to expand their server. It’s like they’re advertising that they’re a small company. Finally!”

The loading felt quite long.

At the end of the loading, Choi Su-won’s record was finally uploaded: 5.2 innings pitched, 3 runs allowed, 2 earned runs; and 4 at-bats, 4 home runs. Of course, the number he wanted to check was the number processed based on those stats.

“1.78?”

Until yesterday, Choi Su-won’s sWAR was 0.81. That means it went up by 0.97 in just one game. In yesterday’s game, Choi Su-won’s performance was so overwhelming that it added 0.97 wins compared to a replacement player.

“Since Stats’ pitcher WAR is based on RA (runs allowed), let’s say they deducted one point more than us… No, but that’s too high considering that? Ah, wait a minute. Their defensive adjustment value is…”

The exact formula wasn’t public. But Donghyun, as a stats enthusiast, had reverse-engineered countless stats and had long figured out how Stats’ stats were calculated.

“Crazy… So they included the defensive stat adjustment for the outfielder appearance in yesterday’s game.”

The WAR as a pitcher was slightly higher on Never’s side, and the WAR as a hitter was slightly higher on Stats’ side. Thus, Choi Su-won’s WAR on Never today was a whopping 1.01.

Choi Su-won added more than 1 win to the team in just yesterday’s game. Is this even a replaceable number? Well, it’s theoretically possible. But usually, when talking about something, saying ‘it’s theoretically possible’ is no different from euphemizing impossibility.

The manifestation of impossibility on Korea’s most credible baseball-related site.

Of course, baseball-related communities were on fire.

─CoinBoomIsComing: This is proof of how absurd the WAR stat is. Even if you win a game, it’s 1 win, so how can a value of more than 1 win be possible in one game?

─RedBeanManager: Tsk tsk tsk, you’re talking nonsense. WAR is wins above replacement. If that replacement player had been in, they would have lost the game for sure.

─CoinBoomIsComing: I’m saying that the maximum should be 1.

─StarbucksMrJeong: How much is Choi Su-won worth?

─RedBeanManager: Of course, it’s possible to be over 1 because the other guys on the team are suppressors. He pitched, hit, and caught, doing everything himself.

─84thFloorSaveMe: Does this mean the Marines did ‘Marines’ again? [Referring to a team known for making mistakes or underperforming]

Yes, it was definitely on fire.

But the degree of that fire was… weaker than Donghyun expected. Clearly, an impossible thing had happened right before his eyes, but why was the reaction so weak?

Rather, trivial stories like the fact that four consecutive home runs in one game was the third time in KBO history, or that there were several people in the world who had four consecutive home runs, and if it was an away game and the Marines had done a little better and had another at-bat opportunity, they could have been the world’s first with five consecutive home runs, were hotter.

In fact, it couldn’t be helped.

A .400 hitter is more intuitive than talking about OPS [On-Base Plus Slugging] exceeding 1.2. There was that much difference between the baseball that record enthusiasts watch and the baseball that ordinary people watch.

But Donghyun wasn’t the only one focusing on the numbers created by analyzing the intuitive records.

Across the Pacific, in the home of baseball, America.

“What? A game WAR of 1.01? Is that even possible?”

“5.2 innings, nine strikeouts, one walk. And 4 at-bats, 4 hits, 4 home runs. No Ohtani rule [rule that allows a player to both pitch and hit in a game], so he was replaced as an outfielder.”

“If he’s an outfielder, was he replaced as a center fielder?”

“No, as a right fielder.”

“Then, even if he’s a two-way player, shouldn’t he have eaten a few more innings or had one more at-bat and hit a long hit to make that possible?”

“KBO is pitcher-friendly, so last year’s home run king had 37.”

“Then it would have been possible. But KBO has a lot of noise in the stats, right?”

“But they’re using Hawk-Eye [a ball-tracking system] there too.”

“Even if the equipment is like that, the analysis in that neighborhood is not very good.”

“That’s why I asked Binghamton’s coach for data.”

“Binghamton?”

“Yeah, James Cole went there as a coach when he was the manager there three years ago.”

“Ah…”

They were sure. They don’t know when it will be. But that young player playing in the Asian league will definitely come to the big league. And when that time comes, the data they are trying to create will definitely be a big help. They didn’t know whether that young player would be on their side or on the opposite side.

“Hey, Alexander McDowell is talking again.”

[Alexander McDowell ‘International prospect contracts are fundamentally flawed policies. Players like Choi Su-won should have come to the big league a long time ago…’]

***

“Wow… Choi Su-won, he’s totally crazy. His bat is like a major leaguer. What do you think, Byeong-cheol?”

A large physique.

But the young man with an innocent impression that didn’t match his physique picked up the ball that came into his mitt and threw it, answering.

“Hey, no matter what, I won’t be able to beat my senior [a respectful term for someone older or more experienced].”

“Don’t say that. Even Jake Boar was hit with consecutive home runs. You faced Jake Boar’s pitches last year, too.”

“It was definitely scary.”

“Oh? Your words and expressions seem a little different?”

“Well, no matter how scary Jake Boar is, he’s not as good as my senior, right?”

“Tsk, you’re so sly. Last year, you were so stiff that it was fun to tease you, but how did you become like this?”

“Well, I’ve been with my senior for months.”

Phoenix was a mess again this year.

Just 2 wins in the eight games since the season started.

But flowers bloom even on piles of dung, and the Phoenix fans were people who were good at forcibly producing hope in despair. Moreover, the hope they were looking at this time was not forcibly produced hope.

-Thwack!!!

The promising player who played in 87 games last year and hit 9 home runs, acknowledging his potential, hit his second home run in the eighth game this year. Of course, there was a monster in a neighboring team competing for last place who hit four home runs in one game, so it felt a bit buried, but it was actually an amazing thing that deserved the expression ‘absurd’.

─Wow… Seriously, replacing Jeong Byeong-cheol with Baek Ha-min. Our front office really needs to bow to the Marines’ front office last year.

That was a comment on his second home run article. For reference, Baek Ha-min recorded 6 innings of no runs that day.

Of course, even if he’s a hitter who hit 2 home runs in just eight games, you might think that 6 innings of no runs is about the same level, right?

But the important thing is that it’s not 2 home runs from a designated hitter or a first baseman.

It’s a catcher’s 2 home runs.

For Phoenix in recent years, the catcher was a position where they were grateful if they could just catch the ball properly. No, in fact, it’s not just Phoenix. Even if the batting average is only .200, it’s the league average. Ga Dong-min, who was Phoenix’s starting catcher until two years ago, recorded .187/.221/.247 [batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage].

It’s no wonder that Jeong Byeong-cheol, who was in his first year as a pro, took over the starting catcher position in the second half of the year.

And another person.

Lim Gwang-hyung, Phoenix’s legendary pitcher who went to MLB through posting [a system that allows KBO players to negotiate with MLB teams] and played for seven seasons until two years ago. Although his performance at the end of his American life wasn’t very good, it was only because of his broken elbow.

Surgery and rehabilitation at the age of thirty-five. It was not an easy decision.

And as a result, he missed the entire year last year, but he finally succeeded in his comeback. He played in the opening game this season and allowed 3 runs in 8 innings. A whopping 13 strikeouts. And in the second game, he allowed 1 run in 7 innings and had 14 strikeouts. And so far, his ERA [Earned Run Average] is 0.

Fans of other teams evaluated him as:

‘A pitcher who wasted his prime in Phoenix couldn’t get rid of his wasteful habits and returned to Phoenix to waste his final years.’

Lim Gwang-hyung stood on the mound of the stadium where he had raised him.

8 years since his debut. And 7 years in the major leagues and 1 year of rehabilitation. A total of 16 years, a time when the landscape had changed about half the time.

But the fans in this stadium hadn’t changed.

Although they were more familiar with defeat than victory, they still came to the stadium and raised their voices.

He wanted to return as wonderfully as Japan’s Hiroki Kuroda.

He wanted to become a pitcher who could lead the team to victory while he still had strength left.

“Still, I rejected a 2-year contract offer…”

Phoenix’s ace, who had never been revived once in the 21st century, threw the ball towards the Marines’ hitter, who had never won a championship since 1992.

***

[Phoenix vs. Marines. Marines vs. Phoenix!! This is Daejeon.]

[Today’s Phoenix starter is Lim Gwang-hyung, the only pitcher who has won a victory for Phoenix.]

[A pitcher who has won a whopping 79 wins in seven seasons in Major League Baseball. If you combine Korean and American records, it’s a whopping 143 wins!! I wonder if he will be able to achieve his 144th win today!! The game has started.]

-Boom!!

“Strike!!”

A 147.3km/h [approximately 91.5 mph] fastball pierced the zone.

A ball that was exquisitely on the borderline. Seo Gyeong-jun clicked his tongue.

‘That senior’s ball is still tricky.’

[How do you see today’s game?]

[Well. In fact, the Marines and Phoenix have been teams that have been lingering at the bottom for a long time recently, or rather, for quite a long time. In other words, both teams have been supplying high-quality prospects for quite a long time. In fact, the prospects are slowly starting to explode one by one. I predict that both teams will escape the bottom this season, and in that sense, this series is a very important series.]

-Thwack!!

[Seo Gyeong-jun hit it!! But right in front of the second baseman!! First base force out.]

[Lim Gwang-hyung’s pitch was very good. In fact, Phoenix has to win today’s game. They put their ace, Lim Gwang-hyung, on the mound after 4 days of rest. They used the fact that Monday is a day off to move the appearance forward by one day. On the other hand, the Marines put Choi Min-hyeok, their 5th starter, as the starter. It’s a fight between the top horse and the 5th horse. The side that used the top horse has to win this no matter what.]

One out.

And the second at-bat.

Lee Jeong-hoon, who didn’t go to the bar yesterday and went to bed at 12, came to the plate.